Key Takeaways
- Two-Day Takeover Pop: Bumble stock jumped 134% from its October 9 close to $5.94 after Ithaca Holdings agreed to pay $6.05 a share in cash.
- Vote Locked: Written consent already approved the deal, leaving ~2% upside.
- Cash Flow Context: LTM free cash flow of ~$255M equals about one-fifth of the $1.3B deal value, while the Street’s 11 holds and 1 underperform carry a $4.18 mean target ~30% below the stock.
Bumble (BMBL) stock has jumped 134% since Friday, October 9, climbing from $2.54 to $5.94 by the October 16 close after Ithaca Holdings agreed to buy the dating app for $6.05 a share in cash, a deal that values Bumble at $1.3 billion.
The run came in two steps. Shares rose 50% to $3.80 on Monday, October 12, Bumble’s best day since its 2021 IPO, on reports of advanced take-private talks. The deal landed Tuesday at a 138% premium to the October 9 close.
Bumble Trades Near the Agreed Offer Price
- The vote is done. Affiliates of Blackstone and founder Whitney Wolfe Herd approved the deal by written consent after signing, so no shareholder vote is coming. Only closing conditions remain.
- New bosses. Ithaca co-founders Ravi Gupta (a Sequoia partner) and John Hegeman (Meta’s former chief revenue officer) become Bumble’s co-CEOs at closing, with Wolfe Herd staying involved.
- The board’s call. Ann Mather, who chairs the board and its special committee, called the deal “the best outcome for our shareholders.”
- No Q3 call. Bumble will file its 10-Q by November 9 without an earnings release or conference call, and it hasn’t named a closing date.
At $5.94, the stock sits 11 cents below the agreed offer, leaving approximately 1.9% upside if the transaction closes at $6.05 per share.
Bumble’s Cash Flow Grew as the Business Shrank
The premium looks huge, but the cash flow behind the business tells the better story. Bumble generated approximately $255 million in free cash flow in the 12 months ended June 2026, roughly one-fifth of the announced $1.3 billion deal value. The announcement doesn’t specify whether that valuation is equity or enterprise value, and with $451 million of debt against $154 million of cash at June 30, the difference matters, so the comparison doesn’t pin down Ithaca’s actual purchase multiple or cash-flow yield.
And the cash got stronger as the business shrank. Free cash flow more than doubled from $110 million in 2024 to $240 million in 2025, even as revenue fell nearly 10% to about $966 million. Paying users kept sliding too, down 16.4% to 3.2 million in the June quarter.
That’s the business Ithaca has agreed to buy: revenue shrinking, free cash flow at its highest level in the four years.
Free cash flow doubled in 2025 while revenue fell, and that’s the business Ithaca agreed to buy. Track Bumble’s cash flow against its revenue on TIKR for free →
The Offer Exceeded September’s Highest Analyst Target
Wall Street’s mean target of $4.18 now sits 30% below the stock. Bumble’s 12 ratings are 11 holds and 1 underperform, with no buys or outperforms left.
That gap exists only because the deal outran the analysts. On September 30, the mean target of $3.72 sat 41% above the $2.63 close, and the highest target on the Street was $5. Ithaca’s offer cleared that high by 21%, and the lone $6.05 target in the table now simply matches the deal.
Interest had been fading well before the bid. Ratings thinned from 17 a year ago to 12, while the number of price targets fell from 14 to 8 as the stock slid from $6.09 to $2.63.
Conclusion
For anyone holding Bumble stock, the written consent took the vote off the table, but the deal still has to close. The remaining 11 cents is the price of waiting for a closing date nobody has named, and selling now gives up about 1.9% to skip that risk.
The sting is in the longer view. The deal values Bumble at $1.3 billion, against the $14 billion it carried at its IPO. A buyer at the September 30 close of $2.63 has more than doubled their money, but investors who bought at the September 30, 2025 close of $6.09 would receive four cents less per share if the acquisition closes at $6.05, despite Bumble generating roughly $255 million in trailing free cash flow.
Bumble’s $4.18 mean target trails the $6.05 deal price by almost $2. Compare Street targets against the price on TIKR for free →
So what is Bumble stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
