Note: All dollar figures are in US dollars unless otherwise stated. Cameco reports its financial statements in Canadian dollars.
Cameco Stock Is Holding a $50 Billion Question
On Sept. 18, Bloomberg reported that Westinghouse, the reactor maker Cameco (CCO) co-owns with Brookfield, is aiming for a US listing valued above US$50 billion, with a public filing possible as soon as October. Cameco shares jumped as much as 3.6% that day. By the Sept. 25 close, they were back at C$124.51, less than a dollar above the C$123.56 close on July 30, the last session before Cameco’s disappointing Q2 report.
If the reported US$50 billion figure represents equity value, and Cameco retains a 49% interest after any IPO dilution or share sale, its stake would imply a gross look-through value above US$24.5 billion. Cameco paid about $2.1 billion for its 49% stake in 2023. Against a market cap of about US$38.3 billion, the stake would represent roughly 64% of the company, before counting a single pound of uranium from McArthur River or Cigar Lake.
The income statement tells a quieter, messier story. Cameco’s equity-income line combines its share of Westinghouse with its share of JV Inkai, and it came to US$93.36 million over the four quarters ended June 30, 2026. The aggregate equity-income line reached US$138.33 million in Q2 2025. Westinghouse was a major driver, as Cameco reported C$126 million in Westinghouse net earnings that quarter, while JV Inkai also contributed C$62 million.
A year later, the picture flipped. Cameco’s share of Westinghouse swung to a C$10 million net loss, JV Inkai kept the combined line positive at US$14.11 million, and Cameco’s adjusted EPS of C$0.18 came in at less than half the C$0.38 consensus. Cameco attributed the year-over-year Westinghouse gap primarily to about US$170 million of project-related revenue from Dukovany.
Westinghouse’s equity-method net income is not a pure operating measure: it includes depreciation and amortization, financing costs, taxes, purchase-accounting effects, and other adjustments. Cameco therefore also presents adjusted EBITDA, a non-IFRS measure, to describe underlying operating performance. Cameco’s share of Westinghouse adjusted EBITDA was C$163 million in Q2, down from C$352 million a year earlier, and C$284 million in the first half, down from C$445 million. A US$24.5 billion stake is a price on what Westinghouse could become, not on that run rate.
The Multiple Has Not Re-Rated Yet
The valuation chart shows no sustained expansion in Cameco’s forward P/E following the IPO report. Cameco’s NTM P/E stood at 97.52x at the end of March and peaked at 110.79x over the past year. It sank to a low of 59.49x after the Q2 miss and sat at 65.48x on Sept. 25. The IPO report produced a brief bump, not a re-rating.
That caution has a basis. Bloomberg’s US$50 billion figure came from unnamed sources, and at least one other mark sits far lower.
Reuters, citing Korea Economic Daily, reported that a 15% Westinghouse stake could be worth US$2.25 billion to US$3 billion, implying a US$15 billion to US$20 billion valuation. At that range, a 49% stake would be worth roughly US$7.4 billion to US$9.8 billion.
The case for the higher number rests on the pipeline. Management identified up to 91 potential AP1000 deployment opportunities and said Westinghouse could capture about 40% to 45% of project value at roughly 20% EBITDA margins. Those are management estimates, not contracted revenue. The DOE has issued a US$17.5 billion conditional loan commitment to finance long-lead equipment for up to 10 AP1000 reactors in the US, but it is not a signed reactor order. South Korea is discussing six AP1000s inside its US investment package, but those remain discussions, not signed orders. Saudi Arabia and the US also signed a 123 civil-nuclear cooperation agreement in July. It may create an opening for US suppliers, including Westinghouse, but it is not a definitive AP1000 contract.
Cameco’s market value does not appear to assign the full reported US$50 billion headline valuation to its Westinghouse stake, though the eventual value will also depend on IPO terms, dilution, taxes, and Cameco’s post-IPO ownership. That discount looks rational until orders firm up. A public registration statement should provide standalone financial statements and could provide more detail on contracted backlog and orders, depending on the final disclosures.
Definitive project agreements or signed reactor orders tied to the DOE program or the reported Korean discussions would matter just as much. Sustained adjusted EBITDA recovery from the C$163 million Q2 level, alongside disclosed firm orders or contracted backlog, would give the headline valuation something to stand on. An IPO priced well below it would reset the math on Cameco’s most debated asset.
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