Key Stats for SPCX Stock
- Past week performance: -2.1%
- 52-week range: $105 to $226
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Unlocked Shares and Big Launches Keep SpaceX Volatile
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) stock fell about 2.1% this week, closing near $149 on Friday. The shares remain about 10% above their $135 IPO price but 34% below their 52-week high of $226. Investor tone has cooled from IPO excitement to scrutiny. Share supply is a big reason why.
Several lock-up periods ended on September 24 and 25. A lock-up bars insiders and early investors from selling for a set time after an IPO. When it ends, more stock can hit the market, which often pressures prices. With only 4.4% of shares trading freely, each unlock carries weight.
Operations remain strong. Q2 revenue jumped 92% to $7.8 billion, and adjusted EBITDA, a measure of cash operating profit, rose 191% to $3.5 billion. Starlink doubled its subscriber base to 12 million. “I think people are really underestimating Starlink here,” CEO Elon Musk said on the Q2 earnings call.
Spending is the sticking point. SpaceX spent about $18.4 billion on capex in Q2, including roughly $15.8 billion on AI computing infrastructure. That dwarfed quarterly revenue and left a $541 million net loss. Going forward, investors will want proof that those data centers earn their keep.
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SpaceX Now Competes With Cloud Giants, Not Just Rocket Makers
SpaceX’s AI segment puts it in direct competition with the largest cloud providers. It rents computing capacity to customers, much like Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL). SpaceX’s AI revenue grew 247% in Q2, but from a base of just $2.6 billion. By comparison, AWS grew 36.7% to $42.2 billion, while Google Cloud rose 82% to $24.8 billion.
Profitability separates them sharply. AWS earned a 39.4% operating margin in Q2, and Google Cloud earned 35.6%. Meanwhile, SpaceX’s AI segment posted an operating loss of $1.26 billion. That gap shows how early SpaceX is in turning compute into profit.
Starlink faces fewer direct rivals, but challengers are emerging. Boeing (BA) and Gogo (GOGO) recently tested a satellite-linked military drone as an alternative to Starlink. Google also plans its first test of AI chips in space under Project Suncatcher. For now, Starlink’s 12 million subscribers and 10,200 satellites give it a scale lead no rival matches.
Valuation stands out even among AI favorites. SpaceX trades at 23.4x forward revenue, compared with 13.0x for Tesla (TSLA). And Nvidia (NVDA), which holds 122.8 million SpaceX shares, trades at just 10.1x forward revenue despite far higher margins.
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What’s Driving SPCX Stock Going Forward?
Near-term launches will test execution. NASA and SpaceX are targeting October 1 for the Crew-13 mission to the International Space Station. Starship’s next test flight could also fly as early as September 28, pending Federal Aviation Administration approval. Successful flights would support confidence in the Space segment.
More lock-up expirations are coming. Additional restrictions end on October 9, 10, and 24. Each unlock could add selling pressure while the float stays small. Short-term volatility is likely around those dates.
Compute expansion drives the AI story. SpaceX ended Q2 with 1.4 gigawatts of computing capacity, up from 400 megawatts a year earlier. SpaceXAI also launched Grok 4.7 this month, which feeds demand for that capacity. The key question is whether contracts ramp fast enough to cover the spending.
Industry tailwinds remain supportive. Space investment more than doubled to $23 billion in the year through June, and investors increasingly favor proven operators. SpaceX’s IPO was a major catalyst for that shift, since it remains the clear sector leader.
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Should You Invest in SpaceX?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
