Boeing Is 21% Below Its High as Wing Delays Test the Turnaround

Key Stats for Boeing Stock

• 52-Week Range: $177 to $254
• Market Cap: around $157 billion
• Street Mean Target: around $275
• Forward 2-Year Revenue Growth (CAGR): around 12%
• Forward 2-Year EPS Growth (CAGR): around 88%, off a very small base
• NTM EV/EBITDA: around 30x
• LTM Gross Margin: 4.7%

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Why Boeing Investors Are Losing Patience

Boeing (BA) has spent 2026 trying to show that the hard part of its recovery is behind it, yet the shares are down about 9% this year.

Slower production is part of the story, and so is the U.S.-Iran conflict, which has pushed West Texas Intermediate crude up roughly 65% year-to-date, according to CNBC. Higher fuel costs squeeze airline margins and leave carriers with less cash for new planes.

The drawdown chart below shows how choppy the ride has been. After sliding about 25% by late March, the stock rebounded in May and August to within roughly 5% of its peak, then rolled over again in September and now sits about 21% below its high.

The sharpest reaction came on September 16, when CEO Kelly Ortberg spoke at the Morgan Stanley Laguna conference about the 737 Max ramp, and the shares closed the session down 4.5%.

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The Wing Bottleneck Behind the 737 Max Ramp

The 737 Max is Boeing’s workhorse single-aisle jet, the plane airlines order in volume, so how fast it leaves the factory largely decides how much cash the company collects.

Boeing has been working toward 47 a month since the FAA raised its production cap to 42 in October 2025, and Ortberg told the conference audience the company is “not stable yet” at that pace.

The bottleneck is internal, since every Max wing is built in Renton, Washington. Getting to 52 a month by year-end now looks unlikely because it depends on a new North Line in Everett coming online.

Cash is where this story either works or doesn’t, and the cash flow per share chart below shows how much of the recovery analysts still expect to see.

After a loss of $18.67 per share in 2024, cash flow barely turned positive at $1.40 last year. Estimates call for around $9 this year and roughly $25 by 2030.

Second-quarter results showed some momentum underneath: revenue came in at $24.56 billion against $22.75 billion a year earlier, Boeing delivered 171 commercial jets versus 150, and the core loss per share narrowed to $0.76 from $1.24.

Net debt still runs around $29 billion. Wolfe Research toured the Renton plant and came away seeing “underappreciated progress,” with wing output improving in September and final assembly following in October.

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What Wall Street Still Sees in the Backlog

Boeing’s total backlog stood at $715 billion at the end of June, with nearly $597 billion of it in commercial airplanes. An order book that size gives investors a long runway even when a quarter disappoints, and new demand is still turning up.

Akasa Air is reportedly in talks to order more than 200 additional 737 Max jets on top of 183 unfilled orders, although a decision may not come until early 2027. A fresh Chinese order is less certain, with hopes for a new commitment fading ahead of this week’s summit.

This backlog explains why analysts stay constructive, and the Street targets table below shows how far their estimates have climbed while the shares have slid.

The mean target has risen from around $225 a year ago to around $275, about 38% above the current close. The 26 estimates range from $246 to $305, and 23 of 28 ratings are Buy or Outperform. Jefferies trimmed its target to $265 from $295 while keeping a Buy rating, citing caution around cash flow.

Boeing trades at around 170 times next-twelve-month earnings, a multiple that reflects how depressed profits still are more than a richly valued business.

Should You Buy BA Stock?

The bull case rests on a $715 billion backlog, rising output, and the 737-10, a variant that makes up about 30% of 737 orders and that Ortberg says will be certified “very soon.”

If wing flow normalizes this fall and the North Line qualifies, the path to higher production, and to the cash flow estimates on the chart, gets much clearer.

The bear case is that the ramp keeps slipping, fuel costs keep pressuring airline customers, and the China order never firms up, all while Boeing works through $29 billion of net debt on still-small earnings. Cash flow per share will say more about which story is winning than delivery counts will.

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!