Key Stats for Nasdaq Stock
- Past-Week Performance: -2%
- 52-Week Range: $65 to $102
- Current Price: $82
What Happened to Nasdaq Stock?
Nasdaq (NDAQ) dropped 2.2% to $80.11 yesterday, as a 5.3% premarket selloff on February 10, triggered by S&P Global’s weak 2026 guidance, dragged the entire data analytics sector sharply lower.
The sharpest single pressure point arrived when S&P Global’s disappointing profit forecast of $19.4 to $19.7 per share fell below Wall Street’s $19.9 estimate, pulling Nasdaq, Moody’s, MSCI, Verisk, and FactSet down simultaneously in premarket trading.
Beneath the sector selloff, Nasdaq’s own fundamentals delivered a strikingly different story, as the company reported Q4 diluted EPS of $0.96, beating the IBES estimate of $0.91, while full-year net income surged 60.1% to $1.8 billion on record Market Services revenue of $1.2 billion.
Nevertheless, the market continues re-rating Nasdaq away from a pure exchange operator toward a diversified financial technology platform, with solutions revenue now representing 76% of total net revenue at $4.0 billion and ARR climbing 10% to $3.1 billion.
Further, Chair and CEO Adena Friedman stated on the Q4 earnings call that “for the first time in our history, we surpassed $5 billion in annual net revenue and $4 billion in solutions revenue,” underscoring a structural milestone that reinforces the company’s expanding technology identity beyond its exchange roots.
Additionally, major 10% shareholder Investor AB reported the acquisition of additional Nasdaq common shares on February 13, signaling strong institutional conviction in the stock even amid near-term sector-wide pressure.
Looking further ahead, Nasdaq’s Fast Entry rule proposal, its 23/5 trading initiative pending SEC approval, and its tokenized equities filing collectively position the company to capture an entirely new generation of market infrastructure revenue over the next three to five years.
Wall Street’s Take on Nasdaq Stock
Despite the sector-wide selloff dragging NDAQ stock down 2.2% to $81.87 on February 20, Nasdaq’s Investor Day on February 25 and a robust IPO pipeline position the stock for a fundamental re-rating that the current price fails to reflect.
The fundamental case remains compelling, as Nasdaq delivered 12.1% revenue growth to $5.3 billion in 2025 while expanding its EBITDA margin to 58.4%, with analysts projecting revenue to climb further to $5.7 billion in 2026 at a 59.0% EBITDA margin.
Meanwhile, Wall Street stands firmly bullish on NDAQ stock, with 13 combined buy and outperform ratings against just 4 holds and 1 underperform, and a mean price target of $107.7 representing 31.6% upside from the February 20 close of $81.87.
The analyst target range itself signals meaningful conviction, with the low target of $82.0 sitting nearly at the current price while the high target of $123.0 implies upside of over 50%, reflecting sharply divergent views on Nasdaq’s FinTech and index franchise growth trajectory.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
Reinforcing that bull case, a mid-case valuation model built on Nasdaq’s record $99 billion in index inflows, its 10.3% ARR growth, and its expanding FinTech cross-sell pipeline prices NDAQ at $132.1, implying a 61.3% total return and a 10.3% annualized IRR through December 2030.
The primary risk for NDAQ stock centers on multiple compression, as the model projects a 4.3% annual P/E contraction through 2030, meaning Nasdaq must sustain strong earnings growth just to offset the valuation headwind that a normalizing rate environment could accelerate.
At $81.87, Nasdaq stock trades at a meaningful discount to every forward-looking measure available, making it an undervalued entry point for investors willing to look past near-term sector noise toward Nasdaq’s expanding technology platform story.
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