Key Stats for PayPal Stock
- Past week’s performance: +2%
- 52-week range: $38 to $80
- Valuation model target price: $57
- Implied upside: 36.9% over 2.9 years
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What Happened?
PayPal (PYPL) shares have stayed under pressure in 2026 because investors have digested a weak outlook, a major leadership change, and a growing wave of legal headlines that followed the stock’s sharp post-earnings drop.
On Feb. 3, PayPal reported Q4 results that missed consensus estimates, and management also issued a 2026 profit outlook that came in below expectations, which pushed the stock sharply lower on the day and reset near-term sentiment around the company’s growth outlook.
That same day, PayPal announced a CEO change, with the board appointing Enrique Lores as President and CEO effective March 1, and the company said Jamie Miller would serve as Interim CEO during the transition, which added another major variable for investors to weigh alongside the earnings reset.
Then on Feb. 11, Reuters reported that PayPal cut its 2026 outlook again amid slowing growth and rising competition, which kept pressure on the stock because investors were already focused on the pace of improvement in Branded Checkout performance.
Over the past week, attention has also shifted toward legal headlines because Reuters reported multiple investor class action and securities-fraud lawsuit filings tied to PayPal’s disclosures and Branded Checkout claims, which added to uncertainty even as the company continues operating normally.
Looking ahead, investors also have several scheduled events to watch, including PayPal’s appearance at Agent Connect on Mar. 3, the next $0.14 cash dividend on Mar. 4, and the company’s expected Q1 2026 earnings timing in late April with an earnings call planned for early May.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for PayPal (It’s free) >>>
Is PayPal Stock Undervalued?
Under valuation model assumptions realized through 12/31/28, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue growth (CAGR): 7.1%
- Operating margins: 12.0%
- Exit P/E multiple: 20.7x
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $57.03, implying a 36.9% total return from the current share price of $41.65 and an annualized return of 11.6% over the next 2.9 years.
PayPal’s current financial profile supports why the model leans on steady cash generation rather than a growth reacceleration, because LTM revenue is $33.2B, while LTM gross margin is 41.5%, and LTM EBIT margin is 18.7%, which shows the business is still profitable even as growth has moderated.
The balance sheet also remains manageable, because PayPal shows about $1.9B of LTM net debt and 0.28x net debt/EBITDA, which gives the company flexibility while it works through competitive pressure and a leadership transition.
From a valuation standpoint, PayPal trades at about 7.8x NTM P/E, and the model uses a 7.8x exit P/E multiple, which means the modeled returns rely more on execution and cash flow durability than on multiple expansion.
If the stock remains volatile, it is largely because investors are balancing multiple near-term inputs at once, including the new CEO transition, the updated 2026 outlook, and the ongoing legal-news flow that followed the sharp post-earnings selloff.
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