Key Takeaways:
- AI Governance Boom: Enterprise demand for agentic AI governance is accelerating as 86% of organizations delay AI rollouts due to security concerns.
- Price Projection: Based on current execution, AVPT stock could reach $14.55 by December 2027.
- Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 37% from the current price of $10.63.
- Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 18% growth over the next 1.9 years.
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AvePoint (AVPT) delivered strong third-quarter 2025 results with revenues of $109.7 million, up 24% year-over-year, beating guidance on both top and bottom lines. The company raised full-year revenue and operating income guidance while maintaining its ARR outlook at $413-$419 million.
CEO TJ Jiang highlighted how the company is uniquely positioned to address the emerging challenge of governing agentic AI.
- As enterprises deploy AI agents that can execute workflows and make autonomous decisions, they’re creating new data exposure and compliance risks that must be managed.
- AvePoint’s research shows that 86% of organizations have delayed AI rollouts by up to 12 months due to security and governance concerns.
- This isn’t surprising given the sprawl of sensitive data across hundreds of SaaS apps and multi-cloud systems that agents can access without proper oversight.
- The company now provides visibility into agent lifecycles in environments like Microsoft Copilot Studio, tracking where agents originate, what data they access, and how they evolve.
- This eliminates “shadow agents” operating outside governance frameworks.
- Recent customer wins demonstrate platform strength. One of the largest U.S. financial services corporations expanded from data governance to discuss storage optimization with AvePoint Opus.
- A major global food and beverage company nearly doubled its ARR by adding ransomware protection.
- A Japanese telecom firm expanded from Salesforce backup to Teams and SharePoint governance.
- SaaS revenues grew 38% to $84 million, representing the highest quarterly mix ever at 77% of total revenue.
- The company added 41 customers with over $100,000 in ARR during Q3, a quarterly record, bringing the total to 762 such customers.
- Operating margins hit 22%, a new high for the company as a public company, driven by improved sales efficiency and growing channel contributions.
- Sales and marketing expenses reached the company’s long-term target of 30% of revenue.
Despite strong fundamentals and a leadership position in AI governance, AvePoint trades at $10.63, offering upside for investors who recognize the company’s strategic positioning.
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What the Model Says for AvePoint Stock
We analyzed AvePoint through its transformation into a comprehensive AI governance platform with expanding multi-SaaS capabilities.
The company benefits from structural tailwinds in enterprise AI adoption. As organizations deploy Copilot and agentic AI systems, they need governance frameworks that provide visibility, control, and recovery capabilities across their entire data estate.
AvePoint’s platform approach addresses multiple pain points simultaneously—data protection, lifecycle management, access controls, and operational metrics—making it difficult for point solutions to compete.
Management expects deeper penetration of the MSP segment, which remains the fastest-growing vertical.
Recent product launches for monday.com, Docusign, Smartsheet, and Google GCP VMs extend the addressable market beyond Microsoft’s ecosystem.
Using a forecast of 20.6% annual revenue growth and 20.1% operating margins, our model projects the stock will rise to $14.55 within 1.9 years. This assumes a 26.4x price-to-earnings multiple.
That represents compression from AvePoint’s historical P/E averages of 51.9x (one year) and 33x (three years).
The lower multiple acknowledges near-term headwinds from federal government uncertainty, which impacted Q3 results and caused management to maintain rather than raise ARR guidance.
The real value lies in capturing the massive wave of AI governance spending as enterprises move from pilot programs to production deployments of agentic AI systems.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for AVPT stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 20.6%
AvePoint’s growth centers on enterprises needing to govern AI deployments safely.
The company delivered 26% ARR growth in Q3, with all three regions posting above 20% growth.
Management targets $1 billion in ARR by 2029, implying sustained high growth.
The federal government headwind appears temporary, while international markets and commercial segments show strong momentum.
New product categories like multi-SaaS backup and agentic AI governance create additional growth vectors beyond the core Microsoft ecosystem.
2. Operating margins: 20.1%
AvePoint expanded operating margins by nearly 430 basis points year-over-year to 18.7% for full-year 2025.
Q3 margins hit 22%, demonstrating the leverage in the model.
The company achieved its long-term target of 30% sales and marketing expense as a percentage of revenue, driven by channel growth and improved productivity.
Management sees continued margin expansion opportunities as the business scales.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 26.4x
The market values AvePoint at 28.8x earnings. We assume modest compression to 26.4x over our forecast period.
Near-term uncertainty from federal spending creates valuation pressure despite strong commercial execution.
As the company demonstrates sustained growth above 20% while expanding margins and posting Rule of 40 scores near 50, it should command a premium multiple for high-quality SaaS growth.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Here’s how AvePoint stock might perform under different scenarios through December 2029:
- Low Case: If revenue growth slows to 15.9% and net income margins compress to 17.9%, investors still see a 44% total return (10% annually).
- Mid Case: With 17.6% growth and 19.1% margins, we expect a total return of 92% (18.4% annually).
- High Case: If AI governance acceleration drives 19.4% revenue growth while AvePoint maintains 20.1% margins, returns could hit 150% total (26.8% annually).
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The range reflects execution on AI governance adoption, successful navigation of federal uncertainty, and the company’s ability to expand beyond the Microsoft ecosystem into multi-cloud environments.
How Much Upside Does AvePoint Stock Have From Here?
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All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
