Key Stats for Alphabet Stock
- This Week Performance: 3%
- 52-Week Range: $141 to $349
- Current Price: $315
What Happened to Alphabet Stock?
Alphabet (GOOGL) shares climbed 4% today, marking the stock’s biggest single-session gain since November 24, as Google’s launch of Gemini 3.1 Pro and a landmark U.S. Supreme Court ruling striking down Trump’s tariffs landed within the same trading day, sending the stock to $316.12.
Google released Gemini 3.1 Pro on Google Cloud, describing it as the upgraded core intelligence powering its recent Deep Think breakthroughs, making it available in preview on Vertex AI and Gemini Enterprise starting February 19.
The release extends a product momentum streak that also included Lyria 3, Google’s most advanced music generation model, an Android Developer Verification rollout, and a new Photoshoot feature in Pomelli, all announced within the same week.
Consequently, Gemini’s U.S. chatbot market share has already expanded to 29.4% from 17.3% a year ago, signaling that investors increasingly view Alphabet as a credible AI platform challenger rather than a legacy search company defending turf.
Additionally, 61 analysts currently rate the stock a buy with a median price target of $375, suggesting the market still sees roughly 18% upside from current levels despite the sharp single-day move.
The bigger picture shows Alphabet aggressively stacking infrastructure alongside product launches, securing a 150 MW geothermal deal for Nevada data centers, exploring a $100 million investment in Fluidstack, and committing $15 billion to India, all pointing to a company accelerating capacity to match its AI ambitions.
Wall Street’s Take on Alphabet Stock
Gemini 3.1 Pro’s launch, paired with accelerating enterprise partnerships across India, Canada, and Southeast Asia, positions Alphabet to convert its AI product momentum directly into revenue as Street estimates project 16.6% top-line growth to $469.89 billion in 2026.
The fundamental case sharpens further with EBITDA margins expanding to a projected 46.4% in 2026, up from 43.5% in 2025, reflecting operating leverage that suggests Alphabet’s heavy AI infrastructure spending is beginning to yield tangible profitability gains.
Wall Street has grown increasingly convicted, with 47 buy ratings and a mean price target of $375.65 as of February 20, representing roughly 19% upside from the current price of $315.21.
The target range spans $185 on the low end to $443 on the high end across 56 estimates, meaning the bull case prices in a stock nearly 40% above current levels while even the bear case sits well above last year’s lows.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
A mid-case valuation model, built against the backdrop of Gemini’s rising market share and Alphabet’s $68 billion India infrastructure commitment, targets $542 by December 2030, implying a 72.1% total return and an 11.8% annualized IRR from current levels.
The primary risk is P/E multiple compression, with the model itself projecting a negative 5.8% annual P/E CAGR through 2031, meaning the earnings growth story must carry the stock even as the market assigns a lower valuation multiple over time.
At $315 with a mean Street target of $375.65 and a mid-case model pointing to $542, Alphabet looks undervalued relative to both near-term analyst consensus and long-term fundamentals, particularly given its accelerating AI monetization pipeline.
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