Key Stats for Deere Stock
- Price Change: +11.58%
- Current Price: $662
- Valuation Model Target: $875.84
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What Happened?
Deere & Company (DE) shares skyrocketed 11.58% this week, closing at $662.00.
Investors aggressively bought into the heavy machinery giant after Deere reported a massive first-quarter earnings beat that completely reshaped Wall Street’s outlook on the agriculture sector.
The company delivered an EPS of $2.42, which easily crushed the expected $1.92 consensus.
More importantly, management signaled that the worst of the agricultural slump is finally in the rearview mirror.
With farm incomes stabilizing and the age of the global tractor fleet reaching historic highs, farmers are finally being forced to buy new equipment to replace broken-down machinery.
Because of this accelerating replacement cycle and strong order books, Deere confidently raised its full-year net income forecast.
The company now expects to generate between $4.5 billion and $5.0 billion in profit for fiscal 2026.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Deere stock (It’s free!) >>>
Is Deere Undervalued Today?
The TIKR Model indicates that the market is just beginning to price in this massive multi-year recovery.
The model projects a target price of $875.84, representing a solid 32.3% upside from current levels.
Investors have been incredibly cautious on Deere due to falling crop prices over the last two years.
However, the management team made it crystal clear during the earnings call that the cycle has officially inflected.
Christopher Seibert from Investor Communications explicitly confirmed this shift during the presentation: “The developments over the course of the past 3 months have strengthened our belief that 2026 marks the bottom of the current cycle as we project mid-single-digit net sales growth for the equipment operations this fiscal year.”
To meet this coming wave of demand, the company is also rolling out highly anticipated new products that will drive sales.
President Ryan Campbell highlighted their major push into construction equipment, stating verbatim: “We are excited to announce our new Deere designed 20-ton class excavators at the upcoming CONEXPO show in Las Vegas.”
Read the full Deere Transcript on TIKR to see the 2026 recovery breakdown >>>
Valuation Deep Dive
The TIKR Advanced Valuation Model identifies Deere as a highly profitable compounder ready to ride the next agricultural upcycle.
- Target Price: $875.84
- Current Price: $662
- Annualized Return: 6.1%
The Replacement Supercycle: The model factors in a massive wave of pent-up demand. As older machines break down and require replacement, Deere is perfectly positioned to capture this volume. The company expects net sales in its Construction & Forestry segment to be up around 15% this year alone, driven by infrastructure spending and fleet upgrades.
Margin Expansion Through Tech: Deere is no longer just a hardware company. It is a highly profitable software and technology provider. With over 500 million “engaged acres” utilizing Deere’s precision agriculture technology, the company is locking farmers into a high-margin ecosystem. The model projects that this recurring revenue will provide a steady baseline of cash flow even in weaker commodity markets.
Conclusion: The absolute best way to play the agriculture rebound. With a projected 32.3% total return potential, Deere offers investors a rare chance to buy an industry leader right at the inflection point of a new cycle. The path to $875 is driven by aggressive tech adoption, an aging global fleet, and a newly raised profit outlook.
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How Much Upside Does Deere Stock Have From Here?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
