Key Stats for Airbnb Stock
- Recent Move: +4%
- Current Price: ~$121
- Valuation Model Target: $265
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What Happened?
Airbnb (ABNB) shares rose ~4% this week after a “double catalyst” event confirmed that the travel slowdown fears were overblown.
First, the company delivered a 12% revenue beat for Q4, posting $2.78 billion in sales and proving that demand remains resilient.
Second, Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to “Buy” with a $154 price target.
The analyst cited the success of new initiatives like “Reserve Now, Pay Later” and a simplified fee structure, which management revealed drove over 200 basis points of incremental growth in the quarter.
The real surprise came from the guidance.
Management forecasted 14% to 16% revenue growth for Q1 2026, signaling a meaningful re-acceleration. This bullish outlook prompted other firms, including Bernstein ($162 target), to reiterate their positive stance.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Airbnb stock (It’s free!) >>>
Is Airbnb Undervalued Today?
While the stock has bounced, the TIKR Model suggests the market is still pricing Airbnb as a mature utility rather than an accelerating growth compounder.
The model sees a path to $265, implying 118% upside from current levels.
During the earnings call, CEO Brian Chesky explained that this growth is engineered, not accidental.
He detailed “Project Hawaii,” a deliberate innovation strategy that is now paying off: “The acceleration that you’re seeing didn’t happen by accident… We created a small elite team and gave them a really clear mandate, make it easier to find and book a home.”
Management explicitly linked this innovation to financial results, stating: “These are just a few of the hundreds of improvements the team shipped, driving hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue in 2025 alone.”
If Airbnb can manufacture double-digit growth through product tweaks, the current valuation multiple is far too low.
Read the full Airbnb Transcript on TIKR to see the 2026 Roadmap >>>
Valuation Deep Dive
The TIKR Advanced Valuation Model projects that Airbnb’s return to “low double-digit” growth will compound significantly over the next five years.
- Target Price: $265
- Current Price: ~$121
- Annualized Return: 17.4%
The “Re-Acceleration” Thesis: The model assumes the company hits its target of 14-16% growth in the near term and sustains double-digit expansion. Management’s guidance for “stable” EBITDA margins means this top-line growth will flow directly to free cash flow.
The Capital Return Bonus: Airbnb is a cash machine, generating $4.6 billion in free cash flow last year (38% margin). The company used over 80% of that cash to buy back $3.8 billion of stock. This aggressive buyback program acts as a constant tailwind for EPS growth, further supporting the path to $265.
Conclusion: The growth engine is back. With a projected 17.4% annualized return, Airbnb is proving it can re-accelerate growth even at a massive scale. For investors, the combination of a 38% free cash flow margin and a path to $265 makes this a compelling entry point.
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How Much Upside Does Airbnb Stock Have From Here?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
