Key Stats for Newmont Stock
- Recent Move: +7%
- Current Price: ~$126
- Valuation Model Target: $107
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What Happened?
Newmont Corporation (NEM) shares surged ~7% this week, closing near $126, as a global “Gold Rush” sent the precious metal to unprecedented heights.
Spot gold prices broke through the psychological $5,000 per ounce barrier, driven by geopolitical instability and aggressive central bank buying.
This rally comes as the company operates under new leadership.
Natascha Viljoen, who took over as CEO on January 1, 2026, has focused the company on operational discipline.
In her previous updates, she emphasized maximizing the value of the portfolio, stating: “We will continue to be disciplined… ensuring that Newmont is well positioned to drive consistent long-term shareholder value.”
The company also recently achieved a major milestone, declaring commercial production at its Ahafo North mine in Ghana.
This new asset is expected to add profitable, low-cost ounces for at least 13 years, providing fundamental support to the production profile.
However, despite these operational wins, the sheer velocity of the stock’s recent move has raised valuation concerns.
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Is Newmont Undervalued Today?
While management is executing well, having generated record free cash flow of $4.5 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, the current stock price implies that gold prices will stay at these historic highs forever.
CEO Natascha Viljoen warned against chasing cycles without discipline, noting: “We will continue to be disciplined and balanced in our capital allocation priorities. Despite the record-level gold price environment.”
The market is pricing Newmont for perfection.
But as the model shows, even with a strong pipeline including the Tanami expansion and Cadia block caves, the fundamental fair value lags behind the current euphoria.
Read the full Newmont Transcript on TIKR to see the CEO’s Strategy >>>
Valuation Deep Dive
The TIKR Advanced Valuation Model indicates that the “safe haven” premium has pushed the price beyond its intrinsic value.
- Target Price (2029): $107
- Current Price: ~$126
- Annualized Return: -4.2%
The “Gold Rush” Premium: The stock is trading at a significant premium to its historical averages. While the Ahafo North ramp-up adds value, the model struggles to justify paying ~$126/share unless gold prices continue to climb exponentially from here.
Operational Reality: Management has guided for 2026 production to be weighted toward the lower end of guidance due to mine sequencing at Yanacocha and Peñasquito. This operational reality, lower ounces in the near term, clashes with the “buy at any price” mentality currently driving the stock.
Conclusion: A classic trap. With a projected -4.2% annualized return, Newmont appears to be a “crowded trade.” While the company is world-class, the valuation has detached from the fundamentals. Investors chasing the gold rally here are paying a steep premium for safety.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
