Key Stats for Pool Corp Stock
- Price Change: -14.48%
- Current Price: $218.36
- Valuation Model Target: $305.25
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What Happened?
Pool Corporation (POOL) shares crashed 14.48% this week, closing at $218.36.
Investors dumped the stock after Pool Corp reported sluggish Q4 earnings that highlighted ongoing weakness in the broader housing and outdoor living markets.
The company reported that sales totaled $982 million in the fourth quarter, a 1% decline from the previous year.
Management noted that new pool construction, a key driver of discretionary spending, remained a significant headwind.
The industry saw roughly 60,000 new pools built in the U.S. in 2025, which represents a mid-single-digit decline from last year and is 40% lower than the peak levels seen in 2022.
Furthermore, the company’s guidance for 2026 was largely uninspiring, calling for only low single-digit net sales growth as consumers remain hesitant to finance expensive backyard renovations.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Pool Corp stock (It’s free!) >>>
Is Pool Corp Undervalued Today?
The TIKR Model indicates that the market is overreacting to the cyclical slowdown in new construction while ignoring the highly profitable, recurring nature of the business.
The model projects a target price of $305.25, representing a strong 39.8% upside from current levels.
The selloff has pushed the stock to a much more attractive valuation, especially considering that the core “maintenance” business is incredibly stable.
CEO Peter Arvan emphasized this exact point during the earnings call, stating verbatim: “While new pool construction remains down, maintenance spending proved resilient.”
He also noted that a recovery is inevitable, adding: “Although it’s difficult to predict the timing, we do believe that as consumer confidence returns, deferred pool projects and upgrades will come back to the market.”
Read the full Pool Corp Transcript on TIKR to see the full market breakdown >>>
Valuation Deep Dive
The TIKR Advanced Valuation Model identifies Pool Corp as a rare, high-quality compounder that is currently suffering from a temporary macroeconomic hangover.
- Target Price: $305.25
- Current Price: $218.36
- Annualized Return: 7.1%
The Maintenance Moat: While the market focuses on the lack of new pool construction, roughly 64% of Pool Corp’s sales actually come from non-discretionary maintenance items. Once a pool is built, it requires constant chemical treatment, cleaning, and replacement parts regardless of the broader economy. This creates a massive recurring revenue stream that insulates the company during housing downturns.
Margin Protection: Despite the drop in sales, the company successfully expanded its gross margin to 30.1% in the fourth quarter, an improvement of 70 basis points year over year. The model highlights that Pool Corp’s ability to drive pricing power and shift toward higher margin private label brands will protect profitability until consumer discretionary spending finally returns.
Conclusion: A high-quality compounder on sale. With a projected 39.8% total return potential, the recent 14% plunge offers long-term investors a fantastic entry point. The path to $305 is paved by the unavoidable, recurring nature of pool maintenance and the inevitable return of pent-up remodeling demand.
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How Much Upside Does Pool Corp Stock Have From Here?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
