Key Takeaways:
- Identity Security Boom: 80% of data breaches start with compromised credentials, making Clear Secure’s platform increasingly critical.
- Price Projection: Based on current execution, YOU stock could reach $49.10 by December 2027.
- Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 51.1% from the current price of $32.50.
- Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 24.7% growth over the next 1.9 years.
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Clear Secure (YOU) delivered a strong third quarter in fiscal 2025, with revenue growing 15.5% year-over-year to $229.2 million — beating the top end of its own guidance.
- Total bookings rose 14.3% to $260.1 million, and the company raised its full-year free cash flow guidance to at least $320 million.
- The quarter showed Clear Secure firing on multiple fronts. Its core CLEAR+ membership base grew to 7.7 million, up 7.5% year over year.
- Its enterprise identity platform, CLEAR1, posted its strongest bookings quarter on record (excluding a one-time 2022 event).
- And its new eGates — vertically integrated hardware-software pods that verify identity in under five seconds — are rolling out across major U.S. airports with early member feedback that CEO Caryn Seidman-Becker described simply as “magical.”
Despite the momentum, YOU stock trades at $32.50 — well below where the fundamentals point.
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What the Model Says for Clear Secure Stock
We analyzed Clear Secure using TIKR’s Valuation Model, which projects a target price of $49.10 by December 31, 2027. That’s a potential total return of 51.1%, or roughly 24.7% annually.
The bull case rests on three legs: a growing CLEAR+ member base, operating leverage from eGates, and an enterprise identity business that’s just beginning to scale.
On the member side, Clear Secure is expanding its addressable market fast. It recently opened CLEAR+ enrollment to passport holders from 42 countries — a move that sets up meaningful growth ahead of high-traffic events like the 2026 FIFA World Cup and the 2028 Olympics.
International enrollment is already picking up, and that’s without any marketing spend targeting those audiences yet.
CLEAR1, the B2B identity platform, is gaining traction in healthcare and workforce security.
The company has partnered with CMS and Epic, embedding its identity verification into millions of patient health records.
These aren’t pilot programs — they’re commercial contracts, and over 20% of companies in the CMS pledge coalition have already signed CLEAR1 deals.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for YOU stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 13.8%
Clear Secure has grown revenue by 25.6% over the past year and by 44.8% annually over the last three years.
Our model assumes a more conservative 13.8% going forward, reflecting natural deceleration as the business matures.
The growth drivers — eGates, international expansion, CLEAR1 enterprise deals, and TSA PreCheck bundling — remain intact.
Sequential bookings growth is accelerating, and management expects that to continue into Q4.
2. Operating margins: 21.9%
Clear Secure has been steadily expanding margins — EBITDA margins hit 30.6% in Q3, up more than 610 basis points year-over-year.
Our 21.9% operating margin assumption reflects continued improvement as eGates reduces ambassador labor costs and allows staff to focus on higher-value concierge services.
Every line of the P&L showed operating leverage in Q3, both sequentially and year-over-year.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 16x
Clear Secure currently trades at 17.3x NTM earnings.
The stock has historically commanded much higher multiples — averaging 20.4x over one year and nearly 30x over three and five years.
Our model assumes modest compression to 16x, given the lack of updates on the American Express credit card partnership renewal in 2026 and broader macro pressures on consumer discretionary spending.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Clear Secure’s business depends on travel volumes, enterprise adoption, and the renewal of its Amex Platinum partnership in 2026. Here’s how the stock could perform through December 2029 under different scenarios:
- Low Case: With 10.8% revenue growth and 23.6% net income margins, investors could see a total return of 72.1% (15.1% annually).
- Mid Case: At 12% growth and 25.6% margins, the model projects a 131% total return (24.1% annually), implying a stock price of $75.08.
- High Case: If Clear Secure sustains 13.2% growth and margins reach 27.4%, total returns could hit 203.5% (33.2% annually).
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The range reflects execution on eGate deployment, CLEAR1 enterprise traction, and how favorably the Amex renewal gets repriced.
In the low case, churn rises post-price increases, and the credit card partnership renews on less favorable terms.
In the high case, international enrollment accelerates ahead of the World Cup and CLEAR1 becomes a material revenue contributor faster than expected.
How Much Upside Does Clear Secure Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
