Key Takeaways:
- Digital Payments Growth: Transaction volumes up 9% year-over-year with strong momentum in tokenization and agentic commerce
- Price Projection: Based on current execution, V stock could reach $420 by September 2028
- Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 31% from the current price of $321
- Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 11% growth over the next 2.6 years
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Visa Inc. (V) delivered strong fiscal first-quarter 2026 results, with net revenue up 15% year over year to $10.9 billion and EPS growth of 15%.
CEO Ryan McInerney highlighted robust innovation across the Visa-as-a-Service stack.
- The company now expects full-year adjusted net revenue growth in the low double digits, despite lower currency volatility.
- Payment volume grew 8% to nearly $4 trillion, while processed transactions increased 9% to 69 billion, demonstrating resilient consumer spending globally.
- The company’s token technology reached 17.5 billion tokens globally, over three times the number of physical cards.
- Guest checkout has dropped from 44% of e-commerce transactions in 2019 to just 16% in fiscal 2025, with the top 25 sellers seeing only 4% of their transactions as guest checkout.
- This means 96% of transactions at major merchants now require only a simple click or biometric authentication.
- Visa’s agentic commerce solution is working with over 100 partners across the ecosystem, with more than 30 actively building in the sandbox.
- The company expanded into B2B agentic payments with Ramp and reached agreements with AWS, Cloudflare, and Akamai to scale secure payment workflows.
Despite strong fundamentals and market-leading innovation, Visa trades at $321, offering upside for investors who recognize the company’s position as a global payments infrastructure provider.
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What the Model Says for Visa Stock
We analyzed Visa’s transformation into the world’s leading digital payments network, with expanding capabilities in commercial solutions, value-added services, and emerging technologies.
The company benefits from multiple structural tailwinds. Value-added services grew 28% year-over-year to $3.2 billion, representing around 50% of overall revenue growth in the first quarter.
Commercial and money movement solutions revenue grew 20%, with commercial payments volume up 10% and Visa Direct transactions growing 23%.
Visa’s stablecoin initiatives show promise with settlement reaching an annualized run rate of $4.6 billion globally.
The company expanded stablecoin card issuance to over 50 countries and recently launched stablecoin settlement capabilities with USDC in the U.S.
The tokenization opportunity remains significant. With 17.5 billion tokens deployed but still representing only a portion of total transactions, Visa continues engaging merchants to convert stored credentials to tokens.
The company reduced guest checkout substantially, but 16% of global e-commerce still presents an opportunity.
Using a forecast of 10.6% annual revenue growth and 68% operating margins, our model projects the stock will rise to $420 within 2.6 years. This assumes a 22.3x price-to-earnings multiple.
That represents compression from Visa’s historical P/E averages of 27.9x (one year) and 28.2x (five years).
The lower multiple acknowledges near-term uncertainties around regulatory discussions, including CCCA legislation, though management expressed confidence in educating policymakers on competitive market dynamics.
The real value lies in capturing secular growth in global digital payments while expanding high-margin, value-added services and commercial solutions.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for V stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 10.6%
Visa’s growth centers on structural demand for digital payments infrastructure.
- The company delivered 15% net revenue growth in Q1 with strong performance across all business segments.
- International payments volume grew 9% in constant dollars, consistent with recent quarters.
- Cross-border volume excluding intra-Europe grew 11%, driven by 12% e-commerce growth and 10% travel-related growth.
- Management expects full-year adjusted net revenue growth in the low double digits.
- This reflects strong execution across consumer payments, commercial solutions growing 20%, and value-added services expanding 28%.
- The tokenization opportunity, agentic commerce partnerships, and stablecoin initiatives provide additional growth vectors.
2. Operating margins: 68%
The company has consistently delivered margins in the mid-to-high 60% range, reflecting the scalable nature of its network business model.
Operating expenses grew 16% in Q1, slightly above expectations due to FX impacts and marketing timing related to FIFA and Olympics sponsorships.
However, these represent revenue-generating marketing services activities that drive client engagement.
Management expects full-year adjusted operating expense growth in the low double digits, implying continued margin expansion as revenue growth outpaces expense growth.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 22.3x
The market currently values Visa at 24.3x earnings. We assume slight compression to 22.3x over our forecast period, below historical averages of 27.9x (one year) and 28.2x (five years).
This conservative multiple accounts for regulatory uncertainty around potential Credit Card Competition Act legislation.
However, management expressed confidence in the competitive market dynamics, noting intense competition from new entrants, including crypto, stablecoins, BNPL, wallets, and A2A payments.
As Visa demonstrates resilient execution across its global network and continues shipping innovative products like Flex Credential, tokenization, and agentic commerce solutions, the company should command a premium multiple for its market leadership and growth profile.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Digital payments face evolving competitive dynamics and regulatory considerations. Here’s how Visa stock might perform under different scenarios through September 2030:
- Low Case: If revenue growth moderates to 8.4% and net income margins compress to 51%, investors still see a 29.4% total return (5.8% annually)
- Mid Case: With 9.3% growth and 54.4% margins, we expect a total return of 62.8% (11.1% annually)
- High Case: If digital payment acceleration drives 10.3% revenue growth while Visa maintains 57.1% margins, returns could hit 99.3% total (16.1% annually)
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The range reflects execution on tokenization adoption, successful scaling of value-added services, navigation of regulatory discussions, and capture of emerging opportunities in agentic commerce and stablecoins.
In the low case, regulatory headwinds create business disruption, or competitive pressures intensify beyond expectations.
In the high case, digital payment adoption accelerates faster than anticipated, value-added services margins improve, and emerging technologies drive incremental revenue streams ahead of schedule.
How Much Upside Does Visa Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
