Down 46% In Last Year, Can Alkami Technology Stock Rebound in 2026?

Key Takeaways:

• Digital Banking Growth: Financial institutions are rapidly modernizing their platforms, yet 70% of the market still uses legacy systems.
• Price Projection: Based on current execution, ALKT stock could reach $23 by December 2027.
• Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 32% from the current price of $17.
• Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 16% growth over the next 1.9 years.

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Alkami Technology (ALKT) delivered strong third-quarter results in 2025, with revenue growing 31% and adjusted EBITDA reaching $16 million. The company now serves 413 financial institutions with 21.6 million registered users, up 2.1 million from the prior year.

CEO Alex Shootman highlighted record implementation activity, with 13 new clients going live on the digital banking platform in Q3 alone—the most in company history.

• The services team even brought three clients live in a single day, something accomplished only once before in Alkami’s history.
• Strong sales momentum continued across both platforms.
• The company signed 10 new digital banking clients, including its largest deal ever—a top 20 credit union with 450,000 digital users.
• MANTL, the account opening and onboarding platform acquired earlier, added 29 new clients, demonstrating accelerating cross-sell success.
• Management sees tremendous runway ahead. Of the top 2,500 financial institutions excluding mega banks, over 900 credit unions and nearly 1,000 community banks remain on outdated platforms.
• With less than 30% of the 250 million addressable digital users on modern systems, the digital transformation wave is still in early innings.
• The MANTL integration is already paying dividends. Alkami now has 44 clients using both its digital banking and account-opening platforms—up from just 15 at acquisition.
• When clients subscribe to all three technologies (digital banking, account opening, and data/marketing), average contract value increases 30%.

Despite posting consistent execution and a massive market opportunity, Alkami trades at $17, offering meaningful upside for investors who recognize the company’s position in essential financial technology infrastructure.

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What the Model Says for Alkami Technology Stock

We analyzed Alkami as it transforms community banking through integrated digital platforms.

• The company benefits from structural tailwinds as regional banks and credit unions modernize their technology stacks, which have lagged for decades.
• Community banks historically bought everything from their core banking provider in bundled suites. That behavior is changing.
• Financial institutions now recognize they need best-of-breed digital experiences to compete for deposits and attract new customers in an increasingly digital-first world.
• Alkami’s platform solves this problem. The seamless integration of digital banking, account opening, and data analytics creates the consumer experience that community institutions need to grow.
• Without this unified front-end, customers face disjointed processes spanning multiple systems—sometimes requiring phone calls or paper forms.
• The MANTL acquisition significantly strengthens this value proposition. Cross-selling accelerated quickly because both platforms share the same buyer within financial institutions, unlike previous acquisitions, where relationship building took longer.
• Management sees additional upside from expanding the treasury management and commercial banking capabilities.
• New features released each quarter give banks more reasons to choose Alkami when evaluating providers.

Using a forecast of 25.2% annual revenue growth and 16.1% operating margins, our model projects the stock will rise to $23 within 1.9 years, assuming a 20.2x price-to-earnings multiple.

That represents compression from Alkami’s historical averages of 45.3x (one year) and 13.8x (three years). The lower multiple reflects the company’s transition toward profitability and normalization from earlier high-growth multiples as the business matures.

Our Valuation Assumptions

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Our Valuation Assumptions

TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.

Here’s what we used for ALKT stock:

1. Revenue Growth: 25.2%

Alkami’s growth centers on digital transformation across the community banking industry.

The company delivered total revenue growth of 31.5% in Q3, with organic growth exceeding 20%.

Strong implementation momentum drives visibility. Alkami brought 32 financial institutions live over the past 12 months and exited Q3 with $67 million of ARR in backlog.

The sales engine continues firing on all cylinders. New logo signings remain consistent with recent years, while add-on sales now represent nearly 50% of total bookings—four percentage points better than 2024.

MANTL is approaching $60 million in ARR, ahead of acquisition expectations.

2. Operating margins: 16.1%

Alkami has made substantial progress expanding margins from negative territory several years ago to 14.1% adjusted EBITDA margin in Q3 2025.

This performance reflects operational leverage across the model. The company achieved 360 basis points of operating expense leverage year over year, primarily through R&D and G&A efficiency.

Gross margins expanded nearly 100 basis points to 63.7%.

Management continues to build the offshore development center in India, which now employs over 110 engineers, with plans to reach 150 by year-end.

This provides a scalable, cost-efficient way to fuel product innovation while maintaining margin expansion.

3. Exit P/E Multiple: 20.2x

The market values Alkami at 22.2x current earnings. We assume modest compression to 20.2x over our forecast period as the company transitions from hyper-growth toward sustainable profitability.

As Alkami demonstrates predictable execution across its global financial institution base and continues scaling MANTL integration benefits, the company should maintain a premium multiple to broader software peers given its mission-critical infrastructure role and long-term contracted revenue model.

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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?

Software companies face execution risks and competitive dynamics. Here’s how Alkami stock might perform under different scenarios through December 2029:

• Low Case: If revenue growth moderates to 18.5% and net income margins reach 15.6%, investors still see a 35% total return (8% annually).
• Mid Case: With 20.6% growth and 16.3% margins maintained, we expect a total return of 79% (16.2% annually).
• High Case: If digital banking adoption accelerates and cross-selling drives 22.6% revenue growth while Alkami achieves 17.1% margins, returns could hit 132.4% total (24% annually).

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The range reflects execution on platform integration, successful navigation of implementation schedules, and MANTL’s ability to penetrate the installed base while winning new logos in the competitive market.

How Much Upside Does Alkami Technology Stock Have From Here?

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All it takes is three simple inputs:

• Revenue Growth
• Operating Margins
• Exit P/E Multiple

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!