Key Stats for MSCI Stock
- Past-Week Performance: 3%
- 52-Week Range: $487 to $626
- Current Price: $544
What Happened to MSCI Stock?
MSCI Inc. (MSCI) currently sits at $539.33 today, even as the company’s Q4 2025 earnings call revealed organic revenue growth exceeding 10%, adjusted EBITDA growth topping 13%, and a record $204 billion in full-year ETF inflows linked to MSCI indices.
Last Q4 2025 earnings call, Chairman and CEO Henry Fernandez confirmed that Q4 marked MSCI’s second-best quarter ever for recurring net new subscription sales, with total run rate surpassing $3.3 billion and asset-based fee run rate surging 26% to $852 million.
Driving that momentum, MSCI’s index flywheel accelerated across multiple client segments, with hedge fund subscription run rate growing 13%, private capital solutions recurring sales jumping 86% year-over-year, and EMEA Index run rate surpassing Americas for the first time ever.
Notably, the market is increasingly re-rating MSCI as an AI-powered data infrastructure company rather than a pure index provider, with management disclosing roughly 120 to 140 active AI projects and projecting AI-driven cost reinvestment to double its organic innovation pace by 2027 to 2028.
Henry Fernandez, Chairman and CEO, stated on the Q4 2025 earnings call that “the company is turning into a total AI machine,” citing AI deployment across custom index creation, private asset data processing, and portfolio risk analytics as already generating commercial traction across client segments.
Additionally, MSCI extended its ETF agreement with BlackRock through 2035, securing a long-term anchor for its asset-based fee revenue, while its Indonesia frontier-status warning and SpaceX index inclusion debate kept MSCI’s name central to global index governance conversations through February.
Altogether, MSCI’s combination of 11 consecutive years of double-digit adjusted EPS growth, a $7 trillion AUM ecosystem, and expanding AI capabilities positions the company to sustain low-to-mid-teens EBITDA growth even as short-term free cash flow faces roughly $215 million in timing-related headwinds in 2026.
Wall Street’s Take on MSCI Stock
That strong Q4 momentum, including 86% private capital sales growth, a record $204 billion in ETF inflows, and an extended BlackRock agreement through 2035, positions MSCI to accelerate its already compounding financial algorithm heading into 2026 and beyond.
The fundamental case remains compelling, with consensus estimates projecting revenue growing from $3.1 billion in 2025 to $3.5 billion in 2026, EPS expanding from $17.3 to $19.5, and EBITDA margins widening further to 61.9%, extending an unbroken multi-year margin expansion trend.
Wall Street stands firmly behind MSCI, with 9 analysts rating it a Buy, 6 Outperform, and only 1 Hold, converging on a mean price target of $679.6 against a current price of $544.1, implying roughly 24.9% upside from current levels as of February 20.
The target range, spanning a low of $535.0 to a high of $719.0, reflects meaningful conviction on the upside, with even the most conservative analyst sitting near the current price, suggesting the Street sees limited structural downside from here.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
Reinforced by the BlackRock renewal, AI-driven cost reallocation, and a $7 trillion AUM ecosystem, a mid-case DCF model prices MSCI at $973.1 by December 2030, implying a 78.8% total return and a 12.7% annualized IRR from the current $544.1 price.
The primary risk is multiple compression, as MSCI’s P/E has already contracted at an 11.1% CAGR over five years, and any sustained slowdown in Sustainability revenue or ABF inflows amid geopolitical uncertainty could pressure a valuation that demands consistent execution.
At $544.1, MSCI trades at a meaningful discount to both analyst consensus and long-term intrinsic value, making it an undervalued compounder for investors willing to look past near-term free cash flow noise toward its durable, AI-enhanced growth engine.
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