Key Stats for Booking Stock
- Price Change: -6.15%
- Current Price: $4,007.45
- Valuation Model Target: $8,207.54
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What Happened?
Booking Holdings (BKNG) shares unexpectedly dropped 6.15% this week, closing at $4,007.45.
The selloff confused many retail investors because Booking reported a fantastic fourth quarter, proving the core business is incredibly healthy.
The online travel giant generated $6.35 billion in revenue, easily beating Wall Street estimates of $6.13 billion.
The company also delivered an adjusted EPS of $48.80, edging past expectations.
So why did the stock fall?
This was a purely narrative-driven drop centered around the “AI Threat”.
Investors are becoming increasingly terrified that new, highly capable “AI Agents” will completely disrupt the online travel agency (OTA) industry.
The fear is simple: if a consumer can just ask a chatbot to “book me a hotel in Paris for under $300 a night,” they no longer need to visit Booking.com or Priceline.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Booking stock (It’s free!) >>>
Is Booking Undervalued Today?
The TIKR Model indicates that the market is drastically underestimating the complexity of the travel business and ignoring the massive structural “moat” that Booking has built over the last two decades.
The model projects a target price of $8,207.54, representing a staggering 104.8% upside from current levels.
During the earnings call, CEO Glenn Fogel directly addressed the “agentic travel” fears.
He explained that while an AI can easily search for a hotel, it cannot easily become the “merchant of record” that actually processes the complex global transactions.
Fogel stated verbatim: “You want to be merchant of record, payments… Well, that’s really complex. And we have over 100 different payment methods, more than 50 currencies. Now why is that? Because the supplier has no idea how to take these strange payments that the customer wants to give.”
He further emphasized the regulatory nightmare an AI company would face trying to bypass OTAs, adding: “You want to be involved in the travel business and you want to be dealing with merchant of record… you got to deal with DSA, DMA, DFA, EU, AIA, P2B, DAC7, I can go on and on, and that’s just the EU.”
Read the full Booking Holdings Transcript on TIKR to see the AI strategy breakdown >>>
Valuation Deep Dive
The TIKR Advanced Valuation Model identifies Booking Holdings as a wide moat compounder that is actively leaning into the AI revolution, rather than running from it.
- Target Price: $8,207.54
- Current Price: $4,007.45
- Annualized Return: 15.9%
The Supplier Moat: Almost 90% of Booking.com’s room nights come from independent hotels, alternative accommodations, and small brands. These “mom and pop” locations rely entirely on Booking’s partner services teams to manage their inventory, pricing, and global visibility. An AI chatbot cannot replicate the thousands of boots on the ground required to maintain these crucial B2B relationships.
The Capital Return Engine: While the market panics, Booking continues to aggressively reward shareholders. The company generated $9.1 billion in free cash flow in 2025 and just announced a 9.4% increase to its quarterly dividend. The model projects that the combination of massive buybacks, a newly announced 25:1 stock split, and an expanding loyalty program will easily drive the stock toward its intrinsic value.
Conclusion: Buy the AI fear. With a projected 104.8% total return potential, the recent 6% pullback is a gift for long-term investors. The path to $8,200 is secured by Booking’s insurmountable payment infrastructure, its sticky Genius loyalty program, and a proven ability to adapt to new technology.
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How Much Upside Does Booking Stock Have From Here?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
