Lockheed Martin Is Up 48% in the Last 6 Months. Here’s Where the Stock Could Go in 2026

Key Stats for Lockheed Martin Stock

• 6-Month Performance: 48%
• 52-Week Range: $410 to $670
• Valuation Model Target Price: $704
• Implied Upside: 7%

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What Happened?

Lockheed Martin stock shares climbed roughly 48% over the past six months to about $658, nearing the top of their $410 to $670 52-week range. The rally reflects stronger confidence in sustained defense spending, elevated geopolitical tensions, and improving visibility into multiyear missile and aircraft programs.

Momentum accelerated after management reinforced earnings durability at Citi’s Global Industrial Tech & Mobility Conference.

CEO James Taiclet said the company is “making great progress and getting really great traction on all three of our major strategic initiatives,” highlighting a $6 billion digital transformation effort that is about 60% complete and new seven-year framework agreements that improve missile production scalability.

CFO Evan Scott reaffirmed full-year guidance despite potential negative first-quarter free cash flow due to billing timing, while pointing to record F-35 deliveries, steady production of roughly 156 aircraft annually, and sustainment revenue that could approach double-digit growth.

That combination strengthened confidence that earnings growth is backed by production volume and margin stability.

Missiles and Fire Control remains a key growth driver. Management outlined double-digit revenue growth potential, potentially reaching the mid-teens in certain years, as PAC-3 and THAAD framework agreements extend visibility through the end of the decade.

Plans to scale PAC-3 missile output toward 2,000 units annually further reinforce revenue durability into 2026.

Institutional flows supported the move. Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken initiated a 2,209-share stake valued at about $1.10 million. First National Bank of Omaha added 6,320 shares worth roughly $3.16 million.

Assetmark increased its position by 183.9%, while Axxcess Wealth Management raised its holdings by 73.1%. NewEdge Wealth and Synovus Financial also expanded positions, while D Orazio & Associates trimmed its stake by 17.2%. Institutions now own about 74.19% of the stock, reflecting sustained long-term sponsorship.

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Is Lockheed Martin Undervalued?

Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:

• Revenue Growth (CAGR): 4.9%
• Operating Margins: 12.1%
• Exit P/E Multiple: 17.6x

Revenue is projected to rise from roughly $75.0 billion in 2025 to about $86.6 billion over the next several years, implying steady mid-single-digit growth supported by sustained F-35 production and expanding missile demand.

F-35 production remains around 156 aircraft annually, with sustainment revenue positioned to approach double-digit growth as the installed base expands across 19 partner nations.

Multiyear PAC-3 and THAAD agreements improve planning visibility and production scalability, supporting margin stability near 12%.

The $6 billion digital transformation program, now about 60% complete, is designed to improve manufacturing efficiency and support operating leverage over time.

Based on these inputs, the valuation model estimates a target price of $704, implying about 7% total upside into 2026, indicating the stock appears modestly undervalued at current prices.

After a 48% rally, performance in 2026 will likely depend more on execution, missile production scaling, and international demand rather than further valuation expansion.

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