Key Stats for Expedia Stock
- Past-Week Performance: -4%
- 52-Week Range: $130 to $304
- Current Price: $203
What Happened to Expedia Stock?
Expedia Group (EXPE) shares fell 13% from their February 11 close of $233.6 to $203.5 by February 20, as the company’s cautious full-year 2026 margin outlook overshadowed a strong Q4 2025 earnings beat reported on February 12.
Expedia posted Q4 adjusted EPS of $3.78 against a $3.36 consensus estimate and revenue of $3.55 billion versus $3.42 billion expected, yet guided full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of only 100 to 125 basis points, well below the 240 basis points delivered in 2025.
The margin deceleration stems from Expedia lapping the benefits of 2025 headcount reductions and marketing cost cuts, with the company selectively reinvesting savings into AI, machine learning talent, and B2B growth initiatives that weigh on near-term profitability.
Despite the selloff, the underlying business showed genuine momentum, with B2B gross bookings surging 24% to $8.7 billion in Q4, marking 18 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth, while full-year 2026 gross bookings guidance of $127 to $129 billion exceeded analyst consensus of $125.95 billion.
CFO Scott Schenkel stated on the Q4 2025 earnings call that “I’m proud of the progress the team delivered in 2025, driving faster site performance, a leaner cost structure and more efficient marketing,” with Q4 adjusted EBITDA reaching $848 million, up 32% year-over-year and well above the $760 million consensus estimate.
Following results, J.P. Morgan cut its price target to $240 from $260, Piper Sandler trimmed to $225 from $250, Jefferies lowered to $240 from $285, and Susquehanna reduced to $240 from $265, though the average analyst rating remained a buy with a median 12-month price target of $280.50.
The pullback reflects a market recalibrating expectations after two years of aggressive cost-cutting driven margin expansion, with investors now scrutinizing whether Expedia’s B2B momentum, AI investments, and international growth can sustain margin improvement without the one-time tailwinds that powered 2025.
Wall Street’s Take on EXPE Stock
Despite the post-earnings selloff dragging EXPE down roughly 12.9% to $203.48, the market’s reaction to near-term margin deceleration appears to overshadow a business that grew adjusted EBITDA 19.3% in 2025 and is projecting further expansion through 2026.
The fundamental case remains intact, with Street estimates pointing to 2026 revenue of $15.92 billion, up 8.1% year-over-year, normalized EPS of $19.21, up 21.1%, and EBITDA margins expanding to 24.9% from 23.8% in 2025.
Wall Street currently prices 34 analyst price targets at a mean of $281.59, with 14 buys and 1 outperform against 23 holds, implying roughly 38.4% upside from the current $203.48 price.
The target range runs from a low of $225 to a high of $387, reflecting genuine disagreement over whether Expedia’s B2B momentum and AI-driven marketing efficiency can offset the fading tailwind from 2025’s one-time cost reductions.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
Notably, a mid-case DCF model built against Expedia stock’s post-earnings reset prices the stock at $443.22 by December 31, 2030, projecting a 117.8% total return and a 17.4% annualized IRR from current levels, suggesting the selloff has created meaningful long-term entry value.
The primary risk is multiple compression, as the model assumes P/E contracts at a negative 8.2% CAGR through 2031, meaning Expedia stock must grow EPS fast enough to overcome a shrinking valuation multiple in an uncertain macro environment where consumer spending remains uneven.
At $203.48, EXPE looks undervalued relative to both Street consensus and long-term model assumptions, but investors will likely need patience as the stock digests the gap between its 2025 cost-cut-driven outperformance and the more modest, reinvestment-heavy growth story ahead.
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