Key Stats for Intel Stock
- Past-Week Performance: -6%
- 52-Week Range: $18 to $55
- Current Price: $44
What Happened to Intel Stock?
Intel Corporation (INTC) shares are trading at $44.11, retreating from a 52-week high of $54.60 as the market balances conflicting catalysts.
Investors are currently weighing a supply-constrained Q1 2026 revenue guide of $11.7B–$12.7B against a massive sentiment boost from Nvidia’s 214.8-million-share stake and a landmark Meta chip deal that signaled Nvidia’s aggressive expansion into the CPU market.
Intel’s Q4 2025 earnings, reported January 22, delivered revenue of $13.7B at the high end of guidance, non-GAAP EPS of $0.15 versus the $0.08 guide, and marked the fifth consecutive quarter of above-guidance results, powered by DCAI revenue surging 15% sequentially to $4.7B, its fastest sequential growth this decade.
Driving that outperformance was an AI-fueled server demand surge Intel could not fully satisfy, with the company’s custom ASIC business growing more than 50% in 2025 to reach a $1B annualized run rate in Q4, while AI PC units grew 16% sequentially following the launch of Core Ultra Series 3 on the Intel 18A process.
Sentiment around Intel is shifting from turnaround skepticism toward cautious optimism, as the company now holds $37.4B in cash, secured strategic investments from Nvidia and SoftBank, exited Altera via Silver Lake, and positioned Intel 18A as the only process globally shipping gate-all-around transistors with backside power for revenue.
CEO Lip-Bu Tan stated on the Q4 2025 earnings call that “our Q4 was another positive step forward,” with revenue, gross margin, and EPS all above guidance, even as supply constraints “meaningfully limited our ability to capture all of the strength in our end markets,” underscoring that demand exceeds Intel’s current production capacity.
Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, noted that Nvidia’s multiyear Meta chip deal spanning Blackwell, Rubin, Grace, and Vera processors is “likely worth tens, potentially hundreds, of billions of dollars,” a development that highlights the competitive pressure Intel faces in both GPU and CPU data center markets.
Intel’s longer-term trajectory now hinges on Intel 14A foundry customer commitments expected in H2 2026, advanced packaging revenue ramps targeted for the same period, and an Investor Day planned at Santa Clara headquarters in H2 2026, where management will detail what the AI infrastructure buildout means for shareholder returns.
Wall Street’s Take on INTC Stock
After five consecutive quarters of above-guidance revenue and a return to profitability in 2025, Intel’s financial trajectory is inflecting, with EBITDA margins expanding from a trough of 21.0% in 2024 to a projected 30.3% in 2026, reversing what had been four straight years of margin compression.
The primary engine of that recovery is server CPU demand that Intel cannot yet fully satisfy, with DCAI revenue up 15% sequentially in Q4 2025 and management guiding for supply to improve each quarter beginning in Q2 2026, setting up what the company’s own market intelligence describes as a strong year of DCAI growth ahead.
Wall Street is cautiously warming to the story, with Buy-rated analysts doubling from 4 to 8 between December 2024 and February 20, pushing the consensus mean target to $47.12 against a $44.11 close, implying modest near-term upside of roughly 6.8%.
Still, the target range among 41 analysts spans $20.40 on the low end to $71.50 on the high end, a spread that reflects deep disagreement over whether Intel’s foundry ambitions and AI server momentum can scale fast enough to justify a premium re-rating.
CFO David Zinsner stated on the Q4 2025 earnings call that “we believe our improved balance sheet, thanks in part to the trust of our strategic partners, combined with the strong talent we have will enable us to meaningfully participate in the next wave of computing,” with Intel holding $37.4B in cash and planning positive free cash flow for full year 2026.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
If Intel delivers on its 14A foundry commitments, ASIC growth, and server CPU ramp, the TIKR valuation model prices the stock at $116.15 by December 31, 2030, projecting a 163.3% total return and a 22.0% annualized IRR from today’s price of $44.11.
The core risk is execution: gross margins sit at a guidance-level 34.5% for Q1 2026, Intel 14A volume production does not arrive until 2028, and rising DRAM and NAND pricing could cap client CPU revenue growth even as server demand accelerates.
At $44.11, Intel is a credible but unproven turnaround, and investors willing to wait for H2 2026 foundry customer commitments and the Santa Clara Analyst Day will have a much clearer picture of whether the bull case is on track before committing capital.
Intel’s longer-term credibility now rests on two pivotal H2 2026 milestones: securing firm 14A foundry customer commitments that would unlock the next wave of capacity CapEx, and hosting its Analyst Day in Santa Clara where management will formally quantify what the AI infrastructure supercycle means for shareholder returns through the decade.
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