Key Stats for Exelon Stock
- Past-30-Day Performance: 6%
- 52-Week Range: $42 to $49
- Valuation Model Target Price: $59
- Implied Upside: 22%
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What Happened?
Exelon Corporation stock shares rose about 6% in the last 30 days, finishing near $48 per share and trading close to the 52 week high of $49. The rally followed stronger earnings results, higher 2026 guidance, analyst price target revisions, and continued institutional accumulation.
The stock moved higher primarily because management reaffirmed durable earnings growth by guiding 2026 operating EPS to $2.81 to $2.91 per share after delivering 2025 adjusted operating EPS of $2.77.
That outlook confirmed steady expansion supported by a $41.3 billion capital plan, including nearly $10 billion of investment in 2026, driving projected 7.9% annual rate base growth.
Analyst sentiment also improved. Wells Fargo raised its price target from $51 to $53 and maintained an Overweight rating, while Scotiabank increased its FY2027 EPS estimate to $3.04 and reiterated a Sector Perform rating with a $47 target.
These updates reinforced confidence in transmission-driven earnings growth even as shares approached their 52 week high.
Institutional positioning strengthened the backdrop. ANTIPODES PARTNERS Ltd increased its stake to 3,557,532 shares, making Exelon its fourth-largest holding, while Vanguard Group raised its ownership to 130,522,986 shares, representing roughly 12.92% of the company.
Institutional ownership stands near 80.9%, highlighting broad long-term sponsorship.
CEO Calvin Butler said, “At Exelon, commitments made are commitments met,” underscoring management’s focus on disciplined capital deployment as grid modernization and large-load demand support the long-term outlook.
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Is Exelon Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 3.8%
- Operating Margins: 23.1%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 16.1x
Revenue is projected to rise from about $24,258 million in 2025 to approximately $29,160 million by 2030, implying annual growth in the 3% to 4% range.
That steady expansion reflects regulated rate base growth rather than commodity exposure, reinforcing earnings durability.
The $41.3 billion capital plan supports 7.9% annual rate base growth through 2029, with more than 70% of incremental capital directed toward transmission projects such as Brandon Shores, Tri-County, and MISO Tranche 2.1.
An additional $12 billion to $17 billion transmission opportunity pipeline strengthens long-term visibility beyond the base plan.
Management expects annual earnings growth near the top end of 5% to 7% through 2029, supported by earned returns on equity of 9% to 10% and anticipated load growth exceeding 3%.
Continued cost discipline and targeted O&M growth below 2.5% through 2029 enhance operating leverage.
Based on these inputs, the valuation model estimates a target price of $59, implying about 22% total upside from the current price near $48 and an annualized return of approximately 7.3% per year.
At current levels, Exelon appears undervalued heading into 2026, with performance driven by transmission-led rate base expansion, stable regulated earnings, and disciplined capital allocation rather than multiple expansion.
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