Key Stats for UpWork Stock
- Past-Week Performance: -%0.4
- 52-Week Range: $11 to $23
- Current Price: $13
What Happened to UpWork Stock?
Upwork (UPWK) dropped 23.6% to $14.34 premarket on February 10 after the company’s Q1 2026 revenue guidance of $192 million to $197 million came in at or below analyst estimates of $197.7 million, arriving in the same week the stock already sat 44% below its 52-week high of $22.84.
Q4 2025 revenue of $198.4 million slightly beat the $197.5 million consensus estimate, and adjusted EBITDA of $52.9 million topped the $51.6 million estimate, but the market punished the stock because the forward guidance signaled a meaningful sequential revenue deceleration heading into Q1.
The deceleration stems directly from Upwork’s deliberate pause in selling legacy Enterprise plans throughout 2025, which left the Enterprise segment down 3% year-on-year in Q4 and guides to further sequential decline in Q1 before the Lifted platform ramps in H2 2026.
The market is struggling to price a business in transition, treating Upwork’s near-term softness as a structural problem rather than a deliberate investment phase, even as platform leading indicators including 7% GSV per active client growth, 19.0% Marketplace take rate, and record-low churn all pointed higher in Q4.
CEO Hayden Brown stated on the Q4 2025 earnings call that “In 2025, we completed a 3-year journey to fundamentally transform the business and position Upwork to extend our leadership in the AI era,” as AI-related GSV surpassed $300 million annualized in Q4, up more than 50% year-on-year.
Adding to the complexity, Upwork’s board authorized a new $300 million share repurchase program on February 18, bringing total buyback authorizations since November 2023 to $600 million, a signal of management confidence that the market has not yet rewarded given the stock’s continued slide to $12.78.
Upwork’s $1.3 trillion total addressable market estimate by 2028, spanning SMB, Enterprise, and agentic AI work, means the longer-term bull case hinges entirely on whether Lifted’s H2 ramp and Business Plus scaling can convert platform momentum into the top-line acceleration the stock currently refuses to price in.
Wall Street’s Take on UPWK Stock
Despite the post-earnings selloff pushing UPWK to $12.78, the investment case now rests on whether Lifted’s H2 2026 ramp and Business Plus scaling can translate record platform fundamentals into the top-line acceleration the guidance implies for the back half of the year.
The fundamental case stays grounded in a profitability trajectory that few investors are crediting at current prices, with 2025 adjusted EBITDA margins hitting a record 28.6% and consensus projecting $840 million in 2026 revenue alongside normalized EPS of $1.44, up 35.6% from 2024’s $1.04.
Wall Street remains constructive despite the selloff, with 5 buy ratings, 2 outperforms, and a mean price target of $23.70 as of February 20, representing 80% upside from the current price of $13.17.
The spread between the street’s low target of $15 and high target of $28 captures the binary nature of the Lifted execution bet, where a successful H2 ramp likely pushes the stock toward the high end while another guidance miss risks testing new lows near the 52-week floor of $11.13.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
The primary risk for UPWK stock is execution timing, specifically that Lifted’s Enterprise integration takes longer than the mid-2026 target, pushing meaningful GSV contribution into 2027 and leaving the stock without a near-term catalyst to close the 80% gap between current price and the street’s mean target.
Additionally, the soft labor market remains a structural headwind, with December 2025 BLS job openings data hitting its lowest level since September 2020, which directly pressures Marketplace GSV volumes even as Upwork grows faster than its staffing peers.
At $12.78 and trading near its 52-week low with 80% upside to the analyst mean target and a record free cash flow base of $223 million backing a fresh $300 million buyback, Upwork looks deeply undervalued on fundamentals but remains a wait-and-see until Lifted’s H2 ramp proves out.
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