Key Stats for Take-Two Interactive Stock
- 52-Week Range: $188 to $265
- Current Price: $216
- Street Mean Target: $277
- Street High Target: $305
- Analyst Consensus: 24 Buys / 2 Outperforms / 1 Hold / 1 Underperform
- TIKR Model Target (Dec. 2030): $474
What Happened?
Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO), the games publisher behind Grand Theft Auto, NBA 2K, and a mobile empire built on the 2022 Zynga acquisition, posted Q3 fiscal 2026 net bookings of $1.76 billion, meaningfully surpassing the high end of its own guidance range of $1.55 to $1.60 billion.
Every label outperformed: NBA 2K delivered high-single-digit unit growth to 8 million sold-in copies, recurrent consumer spending rose 30% year-over-year, and GTA Online’s A Safehouse in the Hills update drove franchise recurrent spending up 27%.
The mobile portfolio, which represents roughly 46% of net bookings through the Zynga label, is the quieter engine accelerating the story: Toon Blast, the flagship Match-3 puzzle game, grew 43% year-over-year and surpassed $3 billion in lifetime net bookings after eight years in market.
Strauss Zelnick, Chairman and CEO, stated on the Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings call that “we are very confident as we approach fiscal 2027 which promises to be groundbreaking for Take-Two and the entire entertainment industry, led by the November 19 release of Grand Theft Auto VI,” with launch marketing for the title set to begin in summer 2026.
The full-year net bookings forecast now stands at $6.65 to $6.70 billion, representing 18% growth over fiscal 2025 and a midpoint roughly $725 million above the initial outlook issued in May 2025, positioning Take-Two stock for a fiscal 2027 earnings inflection unlike any in the company’s history.
Wall Street’s Take on TTWO Stock
The Q3 beat resolves a key concern the market carried into fiscal 2026: that GTA V fatigue and post-Zynga integration drag would suppress bookings ahead of GTA VI, leaving Take-Two stock to wait out a fallow period before the supercycle arrived.
TTWO’s EPS Normalized came in at $3.10 for fiscal 2025, and the Street now projects that figure scaling to around $4 for fiscal 2026 before more than doubling to around $8 in fiscal 2027 as four full quarters of GTA VI revenue hit the model, representing roughly 100% year-over-year growth anchored directly to the November launch.
Twenty-four of the 28 analysts covering Take-Two Interactive stock carry a Buy or Outperform rating, with a mean price target of $277 implying roughly 28% upside from the current price — conviction this unified reflects not just GTA VI hype but the demonstrated ability of the mobile and NBA 2K businesses to compound independent of any single launch.
The target spread runs from $165 to $305, a $140 range that tells the real story: the bear case prices in execution risk around GTA VI’s commercial ramp, while the bull case assumes the title converts pent-up demand into record launch-quarter net bookings and drives a durable re-rating of the recurrent consumer spending base.
A GTA VI slip past November 19 breaks the fiscal 2027 EPS model entirely, compressing the forward multiple without the offsetting earnings acceleration and likely triggering a wave of estimate cuts.
The single number to watch at Take-Two’s May 2026 Q4 earnings call is the initial fiscal 2027 net bookings guidance: a figure above $9 billion confirms the GTA VI launch is tracking toward a record quarter, while anything below $8.5 billion suggests the Street’s most optimistic models need trimming.
Financials
Take-Two’s LTM revenue reached $6.56 billion, a meaningful step up from $5.63 billion in fiscal 2025, as the Zynga mobile portfolio and NBA 2K recurrent spending drove bookings momentum well ahead of the GTA VI cycle.
Gross profit expanded to $3.89 billion on an LTM basis, with gross margins widening to 59.3% from 58.2% in fiscal 2025, reflecting the growing mix of higher-margin recurrent consumer spending now representing 78% of projected full-year net bookings.
The tension sits at the operating line: despite the gross profit expansion, operating income on an LTM basis narrowed to just ($0.05) billion, as SG&A of ($2.63) billion and R&D of ($1.11) billion consumed the margin gains, holding % operating margins at (0.7%) and underscoring that the profitability inflection is a fiscal 2027 story, not a fiscal 2026 one.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
TIKR’s mid-case model prices Take-Two Interactive stock at $474, a 119% total return from current levels, underpinned by a revenue CAGR of around 12% through fiscal 2030 and a net income margin expansion to around 19% as GTA VI recurring revenue scales across multiple fiscal years.
Priced at $216 with a mid-case IRR of around 22% annually and a consensus forecast of roughly 100% EPS growth in fiscal 2027, Take-Two stock is undervalued for investors with a three-to-five year horizon willing to hold through the operating expense absorption preceding the launch.
The entire investment case hinges on one variable: whether GTA VI launches on November 19 and converts twelve-plus years of pent-up franchise demand into a multi-quarter recurrent spending engine.
What Has to Go Right
- GTA VI ships November 19 with no delay, generating record launch-quarter net bookings that validate the Street’s fiscal 2027 consensus of around $9 billion in revenue and around $8 in normalized EPS
- GTA Online-style live service adoption in GTA VI drives recurrent consumer spending above the 78% of net bookings mix already demonstrated in fiscal 2026
- Zynga’s mobile business sustains mid-teens growth through Toon Blast (already at $3 billion in lifetime bookings), Match Factory!, and new title launches from a portfolio generating roughly 46% of total net bookings
- The mobile direct-to-consumer channel, which delivered its strongest quarter on record in Q3, continues capturing a larger share of revenue as third-party take rates decline under a more favorable regulatory environment
- Operating cash flow, raised to around $450 million for fiscal 2026 from an initial forecast of $250 million, continues compounding into fiscal 2027 as launch economics flow through
What Could Go Wrong
- A GTA VI launch delay past November 19 would hollow out the fiscal 2027 model, collapsing EPS estimates that require four full quarters of title revenue and likely triggering $1 billion-plus in fiscal year net bookings cuts
- Operating expenses running at $3.96 to $3.97 billion for fiscal 2026 leave no margin cushion: if top-line growth disappoints even modestly, operating income stays negative and the profitability re-rating the model depends on evaporates
- Mobile growth normalizes below the 19% Q3 pace as Toon Blast ages beyond its eighth year in market, removing the cushion that offset console underperformance in prior quarters
- Affordability pressure on a $70 console title during a period of rising hardware costs compresses unit sell-through below the 8 million sold-in pace NBA 2K already demonstrated, setting a lower benchmark for GTA VI launch expectations
Should You Invest in Take-Two Interactive Software?
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