Key Stats for EXPD Stock
- Past-6-Month Performance: 25%
- 52-Week Range: $100 to $167
- Valuation Model Target Price: $155
- Implied Upside: 4%
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What Happened?
Expeditors International of Washington stock shares have gained about 25% over the past six months as investors rotated back into asset-light logistics companies amid signs that global freight conditions are stabilizing. The rally followed a sharp post-pandemic correction and improving shipment visibility, which reduced fears of continued earnings compression.
The recent pullback was triggered by Q3 institutional filings that showed several large asset managers trimming positions, creating short-term selling pressure.
Shares fell 7.2% intraday to about $150.19 from a prior close of $161.89, touching a low near $149 on 744,356 shares traded, roughly 46% below average volume.
The move reflected portfolio rebalancing rather than a change in underlying business fundamentals.
Filings show Wealthfront Advisers trimmed its stake by 38.4%, selling 15,963 shares to finish with 25,656 shares worth about $3.15 million.
Principal Financial Group reduced its position by 3.9% to 1,167,829 shares valued at roughly $143.17 million, while ProShare Advisors cut 3.0%, leaving 1,467,752 shares worth about $179.9 million.
Other firms made more measured adjustments. Madison Asset Management trimmed 1.2% but still holds 547,050 shares worth about $67.06 million.
Allianz Asset Management increased its position by 14% to 565,430 shares valued at $69.32 million, and Envestnet Asset Management raised its stake by 6.7% to 993,697 shares.
National Pension Service boosted its position by 84.5%, while Rakuten Investment Management initiated a new stake of 27,164 shares.
Institutional investors continue to own roughly 94.02% of the stock, meaning even modest reallocations can drive near-term price volatility.
Is EXPD Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 2.2%
- Operating Margins: 9.5%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 23x
Revenue fell from $17,071.28 million in 2022 to $9,300.11 million in 2023 before rebounding to $10,600.52 million in 2024.
Analysts now project revenue of $11,028.15 million in 2025 and $11,007.66 million in 2026, followed by gradual increases to $11,302.17 million in 2027, $11,705.00 million in 2028, and $12,290.00 million by 2029. This reflects normalization rather than a return to pandemic-era demand levels.
Future returns depend more on margin durability than aggressive revenue acceleration. As an asset-light forwarder, Expeditors can expand EBIT margins if gross profit per shipment improves and operating expenses remain controlled.
Even modest gains in volume or pricing discipline can have an outsized impact on earnings due to the company’s scalable cost structure.
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $154.98, implying about 3.6% total upside over roughly 1.9 years, or about 4% upside from current levels.
Because projected upside remains below 5%, the stock screens as modestly overvalued under conservative assumptions.
Meaningful upside into 2026 would likely require stronger freight volume recovery, improved pricing power, or margin expansion beyond current expectations.
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