Key Stats for Exxon Mobil Stock
- 6-Month Performance: 39%
- 52-Week Range: $98 to $157
- Valuation Model Target Price: $168
- Implied Upside: 15%
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What Happened?
Exxon Mobil Corporation stock shares have climbed about 39% over the past six months, recently trading near $148 per share as investors reassessed the company’s production growth profile, earnings visibility, and capital return strength.
Shares moved higher following the company’s Q4 2025 earnings update, where management reported full-year upstream production averaging 4.7 million oil-equivalent barrels per day, the highest level in more than 40 years.
Permian output reached a record 1.8 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, while Guyana production climbed to roughly 875,000 barrels per day after Yellowtail came online ahead of schedule.
CEO Darren Woods stated, “simply put, there is no near-term peak Permian for us,” reinforcing continued volume growth visibility into 2026.
Capital discipline further supported sentiment. Exxon completed $20 billion in share repurchases during 2025 and commenced start-up activities for all 10 key projects.
Golden Pass LNG was mechanically completed in the fourth quarter, with first LNG expected in very early March, positioning 2026 to benefit from incremental LNG cash flow.
Analyst revisions and institutional positioning provided additional confirmation. Scotiabank raised its FY2026 EPS forecast to $5.00 from $4.80 and maintained an Outperform rating, while projecting FY2027 EPS of $7.25.
NEOS Investment Management increased its stake by 42.7% to 498,700 shares worth about $56.23 million, Mondrian Investment Partners initiated a new position of 680,989 shares valued at roughly $76.78 million, and Merit Financial Group raised its holdings by 16.5%.
Vanguard trimmed its stake by 0.4% but continues to own 429,473,528 shares, representing about 10.07% of Exxon, underscoring sustained large-scale institutional ownership despite selective rebalancing.
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Is Exxon Mobil Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 2.6%
- Operating Margins: 13.5%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 16.0x
Revenue is projected to move from approximately $321.9 billion in 2026 to about $352.9 billion in 2027 before moderating toward roughly $340.2 billion by 2030.
This outlook reflects steady production growth from Guyana and the Permian along with LNG expansion rather than aggressive commodity price assumptions.
Earnings durability increasingly depends on mix improvement. Advantaged assets are expected to account for roughly 65% of production by 2030, supporting structurally lower breakevens and higher returns per barrel.
Lightweight proppant deployment reached about 25% of wells in 2025 and is expected to approach 50% of new wells by year-end 2026, enhancing recovery efficiency in the Permian.
Structural cost savings of $15 billion through 2025, combined with net debt to EBITDA of 0.56x, reinforce balance sheet flexibility.
Carbon capture projects representing roughly 9 million tons per year of CO₂ sequestration capacity and advanced product platforms such as Proxxima and battery anode materials add incremental long-term optionality beyond core oil production.
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $168, implying about 15% total upside over roughly 2.9 years, indicating the stock appears undervalued at current levels.
In 2026, performance will likely hinge on Guyana production ramp, continued Permian efficiency gains, Golden Pass LNG contribution, disciplined capital spending, and sustained buybacks supported by strong cash generation.
Even after a 39% six-month rally, forward returns remain tied to production mix improvement and capital efficiency rather than rapid revenue acceleration.
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