Key Stats — CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) | Q4 FY2026
- Current price: ~$450
- Q4 FY2026 total revenue: $1.31B (+23% YoY)
- Q4 FY2026 non-GAAP EPS: $1.12 (record)
- Q4 FY2026 net new ARR: $330.7M (+47% YoY, all-time record)
- Full-year FY2026 ending ARR: $5.25B (+24% YoY)
- Full-year FY2026 non-GAAP operating income: $1.05B (first time exceeding $1B)
- Full-year FY2026 free cash flow: $1.24B (record, 26% of revenue)
- FY2027 revenue guidance: $5.868B–$5.928B (+23% YoY)
- FY2027 net new ARR guidance: $1.213B–$1.264B (+20%–25% YoY)
- FY2027 non-GAAP EPS guidance: $4.78–$4.90
- TIKR model target price: $1,171.45 (mid case, realized 1/31/31)
- Implied upside: +161% over ~5 years (around 22% annualized)
CrowdStrike Stock Delivers All-Time Record Net New ARR as Q4 Blows Past Expectations
CrowdStrike stock (CRWD) closed Q4 FY2026 with all-time record net new ARR of $330.7 million, up 47% year over year and, according to CEO and Founder George Kurtz on the Q4 earnings call, well ahead of the company’s own expectations.
Total revenue reached $1.31 billion for the quarter, up 23% year over year, with subscription revenue contributing $1.24 billion of that total, also up 23%.
The result pushed ending ARR to $5.25 billion, crossing the $5 billion milestone and accelerating to 24% growth year over year. CrowdStrike stock now represents the fastest pure-play cybersecurity software company to reach that scale.
The platform expansion driving that ARR growth is broad. Cloud, Next-Gen Identity, and Next-Gen SIEM collectively delivered ending ARR of more than $1.9 billion, up 45% year over year and a record for that combined cohort.
Next-Gen SIEM was the fastest grower within the trio, with ending ARR of more than $585 million, up over 75% year over year, according to CFO Burt Podbere on the Q4 earnings call.
The identity business reached more than $520 million in ending ARR, growing more than 34% year over year, with privileged account security growing more than 170% sequentially.
Endpoint, often treated as the mature legacy segment, accelerated for the second consecutive quarter as AI-driven attack surface expansion pushed customers off legacy antivirus platforms.
Falcon Flex continues to reshape the go-to-market. More than 1,600 customers have adopted Flex, with the average Flex customer carrying more than $1 million in ending ARR and adopting nearly 10 modules. More than 380 accounts have already re-Flexed, with the average ARR lift after a re-Flex at 26%, occurring within roughly 7 months.
CrowdStrike raised its FY2027 net new ARR guidance to $1.213 billion to $1.264 billion, reflecting 20% to 25% year-over-year growth, its first time providing a specific net new ARR guide. Total FY2027 revenue guidance was set at $5.868 billion to $5.928 billion, implying 22% to 23% growth. Non-GAAP operating income guidance for FY2027 was set at $1.422 billion to $1.462 billion, a significant step-up from the $1.05 billion delivered in FY2026.
CrowdStrike Stock: What the Income Statement Shows
CrowdStrike stock’s Q4 FY2026 GAAP income statement tells a margin inflection story: after six consecutive quarters of GAAP operating losses, the company returned to GAAP operating profitability in Q4 at $13.1 million.
Q4 FY2026 gross profit came in at $993.5 million, up 26% year over year, with gross margin expanding to 76.1% from 74.2% in Q4 FY2025.
The gross margin trajectory across the trailing eight quarters has been a recovery arc: from 75.6% in Q1 FY2025, the margin dipped to 73.8% in Q1 FY2026 and has since rebuilt to a new trailing high of 76.1%, reflecting cloud infrastructure optimization and the scale benefits CFO Podbere described at the Morgan Stanley conference.
GAAP operating income was $13.1 million in Q4 FY2026 at a 1% GAAP operating margin, compared to a GAAP operating loss of $81.3 million and a -7.7% margin in Q4 FY2025, a swing of roughly $94 million year over year.
The improvement is structural rather than seasonal: GAAP operating losses narrowed from negative $118 million in Q1 FY2026 to negative $75 million in Q2 to negative $69 million in Q3 before flipping positive in Q4.
Valuation Model Take
The TIKR model prices CrowdStrike stock at $1,171 under the mid-case scenario, implying roughly +161% total return from the current price of ~$450 over approximately 5 years, annualizing to about 22%.
The mid-case assumes a revenue CAGR of 20% through 2036 and a net income margin of 23.9%, targets that look conservative given CrowdStrike just guided FY2027 non-GAAP operating margins toward 24% to 25% on a 22% to 23% revenue growth trajectory.
This Q4 report materially strengthens the CrowdStrike stock investment case: net new ARR growth accelerated to 47%, the platform crossed the $5 billion ARR milestone, non-GAAP operating income crossed $1 billion for the full year, free cash flow hit a record $1.24 billion, and the company raised FY2027 guidance ahead of prior Analyst Day assumptions.
The combination of ARR acceleration, record profitability, and a Q1 pipeline that grew 49% year over year means the model assumptions face upward revision risk, not downside risk, from this print.
The central tension for CrowdStrike stock is whether 47% net new ARR growth in Q4 marks a sustainable re-acceleration of the platform’s growth rate, or whether it reflects a peak quarter of post-incident recovery demand that will moderate as the Falcon Flex comp base becomes harder.
Thesis Intact
- Q4 net new ARR of $330.7 million surpassed Q4 FY2024’s $1.51 billion in ending ARR additions and the CCP headwind period, confirming the recovery was complete and the platform is growing organically above pre-incident trajectory
- FY2027 net new ARR guidance of $1.213 billion to $1.264 billion reflects 20% to 25% growth off a base that already delivered $1.01 billion, and the Q1 FY2027 pipeline grew 49% year over year
- Re-Flex cohort data reinforces durability: 380-plus accounts have re-Flexed at a 26% average ARR lift within 7 months, and nearly 100 have re-Flexed multiple times at an additional 48% ARR lift
- AWS marketplace TCV reached nearly $1.5 billion in FY2026, growing nearly 50% year over year, and the Microsoft Azure Consumption Commitment channel opened in FY2027, creating a second hyperscaler distribution flywheel with zero current baseline to comp against
Thesis at Risk
- GAAP operating income returned to positive in Q4 at just $13.1 million on $1.31 billion in revenue, meaning the GAAP profitability inflection is real but thin: any re-acceleration of SG&A or R&D spending (SG&A was $623.8 million in Q4, R&D $356.6 million) could push GAAP margins back negative
- Net new ARR seasonality in FY2027 is guided at 41% first half and 59% second half, consistent with FY2026, meaning Q1 net new ARR of $249 million to $251 million implies a deceleration to 29% to 30% growth, which could disappoint investors anchored to the 47% Q4 print
- The integration of four acquisitions (SGNL, Seraphic, Onum, Pangea) simultaneously adds $74 million to $80 million in incremental operating expenses to FY2027 before the acquired products scale revenue meaningfully
- At ~$450 per share, CrowdStrike stock trades at roughly 34x forward revenue and roughly 80x forward non-GAAP earnings, leaving no margin for execution error if any of the platform growth vectors (Next-Gen SIEM, cloud, identity) stall or face pricing pressure from hyperscaler competition
Should You Invest in CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.?
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