Key Stats — McDonald’s Q4 2025
- Current price: ~$302 (April 21, 2026)
- Q4 total revenues: $7.0B (+10% YoY)
- Q4 adjusted EPS: $3.12 (+7% YoY constant currency)
- Full-year system-wide sales: ~$140B (+5.5% constant currency)
- Full-year adjusted operating margin: 46.9%
- 2026 operating margin guidance: mid- to high 40% range (expanding from 46.9%)
- 2026 CapEx guidance: $3.7B–$3.9B
- TIKR model price target: ~$457
- Implied upside for the next: ~51%
Q4 2025 Earnings Breakdown
McDonald’s stock (MCD) delivered one of its strongest quarterly prints in recent memory, with Q4 2025 total revenues rising 10% year over year to $7.0B.
Adjusted EPS came in at $3.12 for the quarter, including a $0.10 benefit from foreign currency translation; on a constant currency basis, according to CFO Ian Borden on the Q4 earnings call, EPS grew 7% versus the prior year quarter.
The U.S. was the standout driver, posting comp sales growth of 6.8% in Q4, above management’s own expectations, with both positive guest count and positive check growth.
Borden attributed that result to “the highest quarterly comparable guest count gap to near-end competitors in recent history,” a figure that management pointed to as evidence the value and marketing strategy is compounding.
Two activations anchored the quarter: the MONOPOLY event, which drove one of the largest digital customer acquisition events in the company’s history and pushed U.S. loyalty active users to about 46 million, and the Grinch Meal, which set the highest single-day sales record in McDonald’s history.
International operated markets (IOM) added to the momentum with Q4 comp sales up 5.2%, the third consecutive quarter above 4%, led by mid-to-high single-digit growth in the U.K., Germany, and Australia.
International developmental license (IDL) markets posted 4.5% comp growth, led by Japan, with China maintaining share despite continued macro pressure.
For the full year, McDonald’s delivered system-wide sales of nearly $140B, up 5.5% in constant currency, and opened 2,275 gross restaurants, bringing its total unit count closer to its target of 50,000 by end of 2027.
Management guided 2026 operating margin to expand from the 46.9% full-year level, with gross restaurant openings targeting approximately 2,600 and CapEx guided to $3.7B–$3.9B.
Financials
The Q4 income statement for McDonald’s stock shows operating leverage materializing at the bottom of a multi-quarter margin recovery arc.
Q4 total revenues reached $7B, up 10% from $6.4B in Q4 2024, providing the sales base that supported margin stability.
Gross profit came in at $4B, with gross margin at 57.5%, essentially flat versus 57.6% in the year-ago quarter, reflecting resilient unit economics despite elevated cost inputs.
Operating income grew 10% year over year to $3.2B, with operating margin at 45% for the quarter, matching the 45.1% delivered in Q4 2024.
Looking across 2025 as a whole, operating margins ran from 44.6% in Q1 through 47.4% in Q3 before settling at 45.1% in Q4, a trajectory that shows McDonald’s stock holding its margin floor even as it layered on aggressive value and marketing investment.
Management guided 2026 operating margin to expand from the 46.9% full-year 2025 level, targeting the mid-to-high 40% range.
Valuation Model Take
TIKR’s model prices McDonald’s stock at ~$457, implying about 51% total upside from the current price of ~$302 over approximately 5 years, with a 9% annualized return.
The mid-case assumptions embed a 4.5% revenue CAGR through 2030 and an around 35% net income margin, both achievable trajectories given the full-year 2025 operating margin of 47% and the guidance-backed expansion path into 2026.
The Q4 result strengthens the investment case: the combination of ~7% U.S. comp growth, record-setting digital engagement, and margin stability validates that McDonald’s stock is not sacrificing profitability to buy top-line momentum.
The stock trades at a meaningful discount to the TIKR target, and the Q4 print removes near-term execution risk from the bull thesis.
The central question for McDonald’s stock is whether the Q4 momentum, built on two exceptional marketing activations and value program tailwinds, can sustain through a more normalized 2026 comparison base.
What Has to Go Right
- U.S. comp growth sustains in the low-to-mid single digits after the 6.8% Q4 print, supported by the EVM relaunch, McValue, and new beverage lineup under the McCafe brand
- The beverage test, which exceeded expectations across 500+ U.S. restaurants and drove incremental occasions and higher average check, scales successfully to a full national launch
- Loyalty engagement compounds: 210M 90-day active users across 70 markets (up from ~$20B system-wide loyalty sales in 2023 to nearly double in 2025) drives frequency and digital monetization
- 2026 CapEx of $3.7B–$3.9B converts into the targeted ~4.5% unit growth and ~$0.20–$0.30 FX tailwind, supporting EPS expansion even in a flat comp environment
What Could Still Go Wrong
- Q1 2026 comp growth is already expected to decelerate sequentially from Q4’s 6.8%, with management citing roughly 100 basis points of weather drag in January and the absence of MONOPOLY and Grinch comps
- IOM and IDL face ongoing macro pressure, particularly in China, where McDonald’s is targeting over 1,000 new restaurant openings but consumer sentiment remains soft
- Operating margin guidance of mid-to-high 40% leaves a wide band: the low end of that range implies compression from 46.9%, which becomes more likely if franchisee value support costs remain elevated through 2026
- G&A guided at ~2.2% of system-wide sales reflects continued investment in technology and GBS, and any slip in system-wide sales growth amplifies the SG&A headwind on reported margins
Should You Invest in McDonald’s Corporation?
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