Key Stats
- Current Price: ~$55
- Q4 2025 Revenue: $252M, +10% YoY
- FY2025 Revenue (as reported): $994M, +9% YoY
- FY2025 Adjusted EPS: $1.02, +38% YoY
- Q4 2025 Adjusted EPS: $0.27, +35% YoY
- Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 22.7%, +420bps YoY (sixth consecutive quarter of expansion)
- Q1 2026 Revenue Guidance: $235M–$255M (~13% growth at midpoint)
- Q1 2026 Adjusted EPS Guidance (midpoint): ~$0.24, ~50% YoY growth
- TIKR Model Price Target: ~$94
- Implied Upside: ~69% over ~5 years (~12% annualized)
Cognex Stock Posts Sixth Straight Quarter of Margin Expansion as Recovery Takes Hold
Cognex stock (CGNX) delivered Q4 2025 revenue of $252M, up 10% year over year, capping a full fiscal year at $994 million and marking the company’s first year of organic revenue growth since 2021.
Adjusted EPS for the quarter came in at $0.27, representing 35% year-over-year growth, according to CFO Dennis Fehr on the Q4 earnings call.
For the full year, adjusted EPS reached $1.02, up 38% year over year, with the underlying business (excluding a one-time Commercial Partnership benefit) delivering $982M in revenue and adjusted EPS of $0.97, up 31% year over year, according to Fehr on the Q4 call.
The quarter was driven by broad-based strength across factory automation end markets, with Americas up 11%, Europe up 13%, and Greater China up 7% on a constant currency basis, according to Fehr.
Logistics delivered its eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, while consumer electronics grew double digits for the full year, well ahead of management’s initial expectations, according to CEO Matt Moschner on the Q4 call.
Automotive remained the one soft spot, with full-year revenue down high single digits, though Moschner stated on the Q4 call that the market has reached a bottom and the company expects flat to low single-digit growth in 2026.
Cognex acquired approximately 9,000 new customer accounts in 2025, three times the rate of 2024, according to Moschner, alongside a $206M capital return to shareholders including $151M in buybacks, with the board approving an additional $500M repurchase authorization.
For Q1 2026, Cognex guided to revenue of $235M–$255M, representing roughly 13% growth at the midpoint, with adjusted EPS expected between $0.22 and $0.26, implying roughly 50% year-over-year growth at the midpoint, according to Fehr.
Cognex stock trades near $55. The TIKR model puts fair value at ~$94. See the full valuation breakdown for yourself on TIKR for free →
Cognex Stock: Operating Leverage Emerging as the Income Statement Story
Cognex stock enters 2026 with an income statement showing early but real operating leverage — earnings growing faster than revenue for the first time in several years.
Q4 2025 revenue grew 10% year over year to $252M, providing the top-line baseline against which the operating income expansion below becomes meaningful.
Q4 2025 gross margin came in at 65.7%, down from 67.6% in Q3 2025 and 68.7% in Q4 2024, reflecting mix headwinds that Fehr noted were partially tied to prior-year China pricing decisions that have since stabilized.
Q4 2025 operating income was $35M, up 14.4% year over year from $31M in Q4 2024, outpacing revenue growth.
Q4 2025 operating margin reached 14.0%, up from 13.4% in Q4 2024, continuing the year-over-year expansion trend despite the sequential pullback from Q3’s 20.9%.
The full-year margin trajectory tells a cleaner story: operating margins moved from 12.1% in Q1 2025 to 17.4% in Q2, 20.9% in Q3, and 14% in Q4, with Q4’s seasonal step-down consistent with historical patterns and the six-consecutive-quarter adjusted EBITDA expansion streak remaining intact at 22.7% for the quarter.
Valuation Model Take and Scenario Breakdown
The TIKR model prices Cognex stock at ~$94, implying roughly 69% total return potential from the current price of ~$55 over approximately 5 years, or about 12% annualized.
The mid-case model assumes an ~8% revenue CAGR and a 21% net income margin, a combination that requires Cognex to execute on both the cost reduction program and the multi-year penetration opportunity across its five end markets.
This quarter’s report supports the setup: the top-line recovery is confirmed, adjusted EBITDA hit 20%+ a full year ahead of the original plan, and the $35M–$40M cost reduction program provides a credible near-term bridge to the 25% margin run-rate target by end of 2026.
Cognex stock’s investment case is meaningfully stronger after this report than it was a year ago, not because of a single number, but because the margin recovery is no longer theoretical — six consecutive quarters of expansion and a raised through-cycle EBITDA target of 25%–31% signal that the operating model transformation is producing durable results.
The central tension for Cognex stock is whether the top-line recovery can sustain at mid-to-high single digits while the cost program delivers enough margin lift to reach 25% EBITDA by year-end 2026, before the portfolio exits and Crossix-style one-time items distort the baseline.
What Has to Go Right
- The $35M–$40M annualized OpEx reduction must be largely executed in H1 2026 so that margin benefits show up in Q3, the timeline Fehr committed to on the Q4 call
- Consumer electronics growth, which came in double digits in 2025 broadly across customers, must sustain at high single to double digits in 2026 as supply chain shifts and device refresh cycles continue
- Semiconductor must accelerate in H2 2026 as expected, completing the rotation from the three end markets that drove 2025 growth to a broader base including a vertical that management calls capacity-driven rather than penetration-driven
- The ~9,000 new accounts added in 2025 must convert to expanded share of wallet in 2026, which Moschner on the Q4 call identified as the next phase of the customer acquisition strategy
What Could Still Go Wrong
- Logistics is moderating to mid-to-high single digits in 2026 after eight consecutive quarters of double-digit growth, creating a meaningful comp headwind at Cognex’s largest end market by revenue
- The $22M revenue exit (Japan trading business, Mobile SDK) removes low-margin but real revenue, and Fehr’s illustrative baseline of ~$965M means the reported growth rate in 2026 will require close scrutiny to separate organic expansion from base effects
- Gross margin compressed to approximately 66% in Q4 2025, and the one-time mix favorability from 2025 is not expected to fully recur in 2026, according to Fehr, limiting the upside on the COGS line
- Automotive recovery remains geographically uneven, with Europe still declining and management unwilling to project a meaningful rebound, leaving a market that was a double-digit drag in 2024 as only flat to low single-digit growth in 2026
Should You Invest in Cognex Corporation?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up CGNX stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Cognex Corporation alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Access Professional Tools to Analyze CGNX stock on TIKR for Free →
