Key Stats for Cipher Mining Stock
- Past-Month Performance: 14%
- 52-Week Range: $2 to $26
- Valuation Model Target Price: $81
- Implied Upside: 455%
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What Happened?
Cipher Mining stock shares have climbed about 14% over the last month, recently trading near $15 as investors reacted to major expansion financing and active institutional repositioning. The stock remains above its 200-day moving average of $14.64 and is approaching its 50-day average of $16.60, reflecting improving momentum.
The rally was driven primarily by Cipher securing $2.0 billion in 6.125% Senior Secured Notes due 2031 to fund completion of its Black Pearl high-performance computing data center in Wink, Texas.
That financing materially strengthens the company’s ability to scale energized hash rate and accelerate revenue growth into 2026, shifting sentiment back toward long-term infrastructure expansion rather than short-term insider selling volatility.
Institutional positioning added another layer to the story. Thames Capital Management initiated a new 1,514,664-share position worth about $19.1 million, making it the firm’s 11th largest holding at roughly 2.8% of its portfolio.
Federated Hermes increased its stake by 120,629 shares, a 20,172.1% increase, while BIT Capital GmbH reduced its stake by 71.6%, selling 6,139,344 shares but still retaining 2,439,683 shares valued at approximately $30.7 million.
The mixed but active positioning suggests strategic reallocation rather than broad risk-off behavior.
Earlier insider selling by Co-President and COO Patrick Arthur Kelly, who sold 35,568 shares at an average price of $17.76 for approximately $631,688, created temporary pressure, but the market absorbed that supply.
With expansion capital secured and Thomas Duda appointed to the Board of Directors, focus now turns to execution and capacity ramp throughout 2026.
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Is Cipher Mining Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 87%
- Operating Margins: (20%)
- Exit P/E Multiple: 70x
Revenue is projected to scale from roughly $250 million in 2025 to nearly $3.0 billion by 2029 as additional mining infrastructure becomes operational and energized capacity expands.
That reflects aggressive buildout rather than incremental growth.
Current profitability remains negative, with LTM EBIT margins near (48%), but margin improvement depends heavily on operating leverage as fixed power contracts are spread across higher Bitcoin production volumes.
Small improvements in cost per Bitcoin mined or sustained higher realized Bitcoin prices can significantly shift earnings due to the capital-intensive structure of the business.
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $81, implying about 455% total upside over the next several years, indicating the stock appears undervalued at current prices.
Over the next 12 months, performance will be driven by energized hash rate growth, cost discipline on electricity contracts, speed of data center completion in Texas, and the company’s ability to convert infrastructure spending into scalable production.
Bitcoin price stability and network difficulty trends remain key external variables influencing realized margins.
At current levels near $15 per share, Cipher Mining appears undervalued, with 2026 results tied primarily to expansion execution, capital efficiency, and improving operating leverage.
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