Key Takeaways:
- Platform Expansion: Axon Enterprise stock reflects continued execution across software subscriptions and sensors, with revenue growth near 28% supported by recurring agency contracts.
- Governance Update: Axon Enterprise stock absorbed insider ownership filings in January 2026 without disrupting fundamentals or altering long-term operating priorities.
- Price Framework: Based on modeled growth and margin normalization, Axon Enterprise stock could reach $912 by 2027 without valuation expansion.
- Return Profile: From $610, Axon Enterprise stock implies 49% total upside, translating to roughly 23%annualized returns through 2027.
Axon Enterprise (AXON) provides public safety technology spanning software, cameras, and TASER devices, holding a leading position across law enforcement agencies globally.
Recent January 2026 SEC ownership filings by senior executives signal routine governance activity, while core commercial momentum remains centered on subscription software growth.
Axon generated $3 billion in LTM revenue, underscoring sustained demand for bundled hardware and cloud evidence platforms across public safety budgets.
With a market value near $50 billion USD and an 88x earnings multiple, execution strength contrasts with valuation sensitivity, inviting closer scrutiny.
What the Model Says for AXON Stock
We analyzed Axon Enterprise stock using subscription-led revenue scale, reinvestment-heavy margins, and recurring public safety demand supporting premium positioning.
Based on 28.2% revenue growth, 5.9% operating margins, and an 87.5x exit multiple, the model points to $912.58.
That implies a 49.5% total return, or 23.2% annualized over 1.9 years, ending at $912.58 with projected returns.
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for AXON stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 28.2%
Axon generated $3 billion LTM revenue, reflecting sustained demand for integrated hardware and cloud evidence platforms across public safety agencies.
With a $50 billion market value and 88x earnings, Axon shows strong execution alongside elevated valuation sensitivity.
Quarterly revenue grew 31% year over year, driven by body camera adoption, evidence software expansion, and international contracts.
According to consensus analyst estimates, 28.2% revenue growth reflects sustained platform adoption balanced against normalization from prior hypergrowth years.
2. Operating Margins: 5.9%
Axon’s operating margins recently reset near 4% following elevated investment in R&D, cloud infrastructure, and go-to-market expansion.
Historical margins reached about 10% during lower investment periods, showing profitability potential once spending intensity moderates relative to revenue scale.
Margin improvement depends on software mix expansion and operating leverage, while near-term pressure remains from hiring and product development costs.
In line with analyst consensus projections, 5.9% operating margins reflect gradual normalization without assuming aggressive cost cuts or reduced innovation spending.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 87.5x
Axon stock currently trades near 100x earnings, reflecting premium growth expectations and long contract visibility within mission-critical public safety systems.
Historically elevated multiples persisted during periods of 30% revenue growth, reinforcing investor willingness to pay for recurring software economics.
Multiple risk stems from margin volatility and public sector budget sensitivity, requiring consistent execution to maintain valuation confidence.
Based on street consensus estimates, an 87.5x exit multiple balances durable growth positioning with investor caution around profitability timing.
What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Axon Enterprise’s outcomes depend on agency budget cycles, software adoption depth, and cost discipline, setting up a range of possible paths through 2029.
- Low Case: If procurement slows and spending stays heavy, revenue grows around 21.2% and net margins hold near 18.2% → 14.4% annualized return.
- Mid Case: With core subscriptions scaling as planned, revenue growth near 23.5% and margins improving toward 20.8% → 25.4% annualized return.
- High Case: If software penetration deepens and efficiency improves, revenue reaches about 25.9% and margins approach 23.3% → 36.4% annualized return.
How Much Upside Does It Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
See a stock’s true value in under 60 seconds (Free with TIKR) >>>
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
