Key Stats for Amgen Stock
- Current Price: $329.82
- Target Price (Mid): ~$468
- Street Target: ~$353
- Potential Total Return: ~42%
- Annualized IRR: ~8% / year
- Earnings Reaction: -4.75% (May 1, 2026)
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What Happened?
Biotech investors were in a punishing mood on May 1. Amgen (AMGN) reported a clean Q1 2026 beat, raised full-year guidance, and announced new Phase III studies for its obesity drug candidate, yet the stock fell 4.75% to close at $329.82. The reaction made surface-level sense: a newly disclosed IRS tax dispute, a proposed FDA drug withdrawal, and an accelerating patent cliff gave bears enough to sell first and ask questions later.
The question investors are now wrestling with is whether that reaction was rational, or whether it handed long-term buyers a window into a company whose six growth drivers just posted 24% combined growth. The TIKR model prices Amgen at a mid-case target of around $468.
The Three Risks That Drove the Sell-Off
None of the three concerns that hit the stock on May 1 are new. What changed was their specificity.
The sharpest disclosure came from CFO Peter Griffith, who revealed that the IRS issued a draft Notice of Proposed Adjustment, or NOPA, covering tax years 2016 to 2018, asserting significant profit allocation adjustments between the U.S. and Puerto Rico. Griffith stated plainly: “If sustained in full, the adjustments set forth in the draft NOPA could have a material impact on our financial statements.” Parallel litigation covering 2010 to 2015 is already in tax court, with a decision expected no earlier than the second half of 2026. Two open IRS disputes with material-impact language in the same quarter are legitimately unsettling, even if Amgen firmly disputes both.
The second overhang is TAVNEOS, a treatment for ANCA-associated vasculitis (a serious, rare autoimmune disease). The FDA proposed withdrawing its approval after identifying 76 cases of drug-induced liver injury. At stake: $2.4 billion in related intangible assets on Amgen’s balance sheet as of March 31, 2026, which could face impairment if the withdrawal proceeds. Amgen is fighting the decision and expects further FDA engagement.
The third risk is the patent cliff. Prolia and XGEVA combined fell 32% year-over-year to $1.1 billion in Q1 as biosimilar competition intensified after the loss of exclusivity. Management is guided for further acceleration through the rest of 2026. Painful, but planned: this is exactly what Amgen’s springboard-year framework was designed to absorb.
A sector-level factor also weighing on biotech is the Trump administration’s April 2, 2026 executive order imposing 100% tariffs on patented pharmaceuticals manufactured abroad, effective July 31, 2026, for large companies. Generic drugs and biosimilars are currently exempt. Amgen’s existing U.S. manufacturing footprint across Ohio, North Carolina, and Puerto Rico, backed by approximately $2.6 billion in 2026 capital expenditures, positions it relatively better than peers with heavier offshore production. The policy uncertainty still contributed to the sector pressure.
What the Sell-Off Missed
Revenue grew 5.8% year-over-year to $8.618 billion. Non-GAAP EPS of $5.15 beat estimates by around 8% and grew 5% from $4.90 in Q1 2025. Guidance was raised to $37.1 billion to $38.5 billion in revenue and $21.70 to $23.10 in non-GAAP EPS. The composition underneath those numbers matters more than the headlines.
Chief Commercial Officer Murdo Gordon summarized it on the call: 16 products achieved double-digit or better sales growth in Q1, 17 products are now annualizing at $1 billion or more in revenue, and the six designated growth drivers collectively generated $5.6 billion in sales, up 24% year-over-year, representing nearly 70% of total product sales.
The standout performer is Repatha, Amgen’s PCSK9 inhibitor (a medicine that lowers LDL cholesterol to reduce cardiovascular risk). Repatha generated $876 million in Q1 sales, up 34% year-over-year, and U.S. new-to-brand prescriptions grew 44% in the quarter, per Gordon. The catalyst is the VESALIUS-CV trial, whose latest subgroup analysis was presented at the American College of Cardiology and simultaneously published in JAMA on March 28, 2026.
The analysis showed Repatha delivered a 31% reduction in major cardiovascular events in high-risk diabetic patients without established atherosclerosis. Those guidelines have not yet been updated to reflect this data, meaning the prescribing tailwind still has runway.
IMDELLTRA, Amgen’s bispecific T-cell engager (a cancer therapy that recruits immune cells to attack tumors) for small cell lung cancer, contributed $258 million in Q1 as it became the standard of care in the second-line setting. Beyond that, Amgen was selected alongside AstraZeneca to participate in the FDA’s new real-time clinical trial initiative, with its STREAM-SCLC Phase 1b trial reporting safety and efficacy data to the FDA in real time using AI. FDA Commissioner Marty Makary noted the approach could reduce overall trial timelines by “20, 30, 40%.” If it scales, IMDELLTRA’s path through earlier-stage indications could accelerate meaningfully.
UPLIZNA, for rare autoimmune diseases, grew 188% year-over-year to $262 million. EVENITY, for osteoporosis, grew 27% to $562 million with a 65% U.S. bone-builder market share. TEPEZZA, for thyroid eye disease, grew 29% to $490 million. TEZSPIRE, for severe asthma, grew 20% to $343 million.At 10.4x NTM EV/EBITDA (enterprise value relative to forward earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization), Amgen trades at a discount to AbbVie at 12.6x and Gilead at 10.7x, per TIKR’s Competitors page. That discount looks undemanding for a business growing six key drivers at 24% while maintaining a 45% non-GAAP operating margin.
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MariTide: Unproven, but the Program Just Got Bigger
No asset generates more debate than MariTide, Amgen’s injectable candidate for obesity and type 2 diabetes. It is also absent from the TIKR mid-case model, meaning any contribution represents pure upside to the ~$468 target.
Amgen announced two Phase III expansions on the call. First, long-term extensions of existing Phase III chronic weight management studies will evaluate maintenance dosing at monthly, every-eight-week, or quarterly intervals after 72 weeks of treatment. Second, the new SWITCH study will enroll 300 subjects to evaluate switching from weekly injectables such as semaglutide or tirzepatide to MariTide on an every-eight-week or quarterly schedule, with a primary endpoint of body weight change at 52 weeks.
CSO Jay Bradner confirmed on the call that three-step dose escalation continues to reduce nausea and vomiting rates, and that side effect duration when it occurs is short, “over the course of one or several days, no different than the weekly GLP-1s.” The bear case remains that MariTide’s Phase II weight loss data (~20%) did not clearly exceed approved competitors. The bull case is that four to six injections per year versus 52 is a meaningful convenience advantage that Phase III could validate. CEO Robert Bradway declined to project market share rank: “We’ll resist and wait instead until we have the data in hand.”
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $329.82
- Target Price (Mid): ~$468
- Potential Total Return: ~42%
- Annualized IRR: ~8% / year
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The TIKR mid-case model projects a target price of around $468 by 12/31/30, representing approximately 42% total return at roughly 8% annualized IRR. The two primary revenue CAGR drivers are continued Repatha expansion in cardiovascular primary prevention and scaling of the rare disease and oncology portfolios. The margin driver is operating leverage as the six growth drivers absorb fixed costs while Prolia/XGEVA erode. The primary risk is the IRS dispute: an adverse ruling across both open periods could compress the free cash flow profile underpinning the valuation. MariTide, if approved before 2030, represents upside that the mid-case does not capture.
Conclusion
Watch Repatha’s U.S. new-to-brand prescription growth rate at Q2 2026 earnings, expected in late July or early August. If the 44% Q1 growth rate holds or accelerates, it confirms the VESALIUS-CV primary prevention opportunity is being captured at scale and that the TIKR model’s revenue CAGR assumptions are conservative. Amgen’s six growth drivers are absorbing the patent cliff on schedule, guidance was raised, and the stock is now 15.9% below its 52-week high of $391.29. The sell-off created a lower-risk entry into a thesis that did not change on April 30.
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Should You Invest in Amgen?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
