Key Stats for Costco Stock
- Current Price: $951.89
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,404
- Street Target: ~$1,077
- Potential Total Return: ~48%
- Annualized IRR: ~10% / year
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What Happened?
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) is positioned to reclaim a large sum in tariffs, and it has already signaled it will not keep the money. After the Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act in February 2026, Costco became eligible to recover duties it had paid. A new class action estimates that sum in the hundreds of millions, potentially above $1 billion. The twist is that Costco has all but promised the money to members, and a lawsuit is now contesting who it belongs to.
For investors watching the stock fall about 13% from its May high to $951.89 on July 31, the refund can look like a hidden asset. It mostly is not, and why says more about how Costco works than any single sales figure.
The Refund Costco Chose Not to Keep
Costco filed to recover the duties in the Court of International Trade in November 2025, before the Supreme Court even ruled. What it plans to do with the money is the point. CEO Ron Vachris has said any recovered funds will go back to members through lower prices rather than to the income statement, so the refund is unlikely to arrive as a one-time earnings boost.
That choice is now contested. A proposed class action filed in Seattle in March 2026 argues Costco is positioned to collect the same money twice, once from shoppers who paid higher prices in 2025 and again from the government, and asks the court to force direct reimbursement. The allegations are unproven, and no class has been certified. For an investor, the takeaway is narrow: the refund reinforces Costco’s low-price reputation, but it is not a lever on near-term profit, and it carries live legal friction.
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What the Sales Numbers Actually Show
Strip away the legal noise, and the business is doing what it always does. In the five weeks ending July 5, net sales rose 10.6% to $29.24 billion, with U.S. comparable sales also up 10.6%. The headline flatters the truth, though. As Andrew Yoon, Costco’s Director of Finance and Investor Relations, put it on the July sales call, “Excluding gas inflation and FX, average transaction was up 3.7%,” against a 5.5% reported figure. On the same basis, total-company comparable sales were 7.0%, once gasoline inflation and currency are stripped out. Gas inflation alone added about 2.5 points to the reported comp, with the price per gallon up 22.4% year over year.
The durable signals are cleaner. Worldwide traffic, a direct read on whether members keep showing up, rose 3.2%, and digitally enabled sales grew 21.5%, excluding gas and currency. International led, with Taiwan, the United Kingdom, and Korea posting the strongest local-currency results. This is a business still compounding at a healthy clip, which is why the stock holds a premium, and why that premium is the real debate.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $951.89
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,404 by 2030
- Potential Total Return: ~48%
- Annualized IRR: ~10% / year
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Using the mid case, TIKR’s model targets around $1,404 by 2030, a total return near 48% and about 10% annualized. The two revenue drivers are new warehouse productivity, with management targeting 30-plus net new openings a year over the long run, and international expansion, where Taiwan, Korea, and the U.K. led June’s results. The margin driver is membership fee income, which flows almost entirely to the bottom line and lets Costco run a slim LTM gross margin of 12.9% while still growing earnings per share at a high-single-digit forward pace.
The primary risk is the price of admission. At roughly 48 times trailing earnings, Costco sits well above the market and above its own five-year range, so the model assumes the multiple drifts slightly lower over time. The upside is straightforward: if renewal rates hold near 90% and international keeps compounding, a longer scenario running to 2034 points toward roughly $1,903, close to a double from here. The downside is just as concrete: a stumble in membership growth or a faster de-rating of that premium could offset years of earnings gains, the same math that left the stock with a slightly negative return over the past year even as the business grew.
Conclusion
The date that matters is September 24, when Costco reports fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year results after the close. Wall Street expects roughly $6.50 in quarterly EPS, up about 11% year over year. A clean beat with the U.S. renewal rate holding above 92% would confirm the flywheel is intact and make the current multiple easier to defend. A renewal slip, or a comp leaning too heavily on gas, would hand the skeptics their opening. The tariff refund will not settle any of it, and that is the point: at 48 times earnings, Costco is priced for the operating business to keep delivering, refund or no refund.
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Should You Invest in Costco?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Costco, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Costco alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
