Key Stats for Robinhood Stock
- 52-Week Range: $40 to $154
- Current Price: $72
- Street Mean Target: $103
- Street High Target: $155
- TIKR Model Target (Dec. 2030): $178
What Happened?
Robinhood Markets (HOOD), the retail brokerage and financial super-app platform, delivered its most profitable year in company history in 2025, yet Robinhood stock sits more than 50% below its 52-week high as the market prices yesterday’s crypto miss over today’s structural earnings inflection.
Full-year 2025 revenue reached $4.47 billion, a 52% increase year over year, marking the second consecutive year of 50%-plus revenue growth and a more than 3x expansion over the past three years.
The headline miss that spooked investors came in Q4, when crypto trading revenue fell 38% to $221 million, short of the $248 million analyst consensus, as a bitcoin crash from its October 6 peak washed out leveraged positions and U.S. spot-bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $9 billion in combined November and December outflows.
That quarter’s crypto weakness kept Robinhood stock under pressure even as transaction-based revenue grew 15% in Q4, with equities up 54% and options up 41%, and Gold subscribers (HOOD’s premium membership tier) reached a record 4.2 million, up 58% year over year.
On March 4, Robinhood hosted its Take Flight event, announcing custodial accounts for family investing, an invite-only Platinum credit card targeting affluent customers at $695 per year, and updates to Robinhood Strategies, as CEO Vlad Tenev described a deliberate pivot toward multigenerational, high-net-worth customers.
Tenev stated on the Q4 2025 earnings call that “revenues, which were less than $3 billion a year ago, grew to $4.5 billion in 2025. So it’s great to see that 50-plus percent revenue growth for the second straight year.”
On April 6, the U.S. Treasury designated Robinhood as brokerage and initial trustee for the Trump Accounts program, which will seed $1,000 investment accounts for an estimated 25 million eligible children born between 2025 and 2028, a customer acquisition channel with no direct precedent in retail brokerage history.
Wall Street’s Take on HOOD Stock
The Q4 crypto shortfall is why Robinhood stock trades at a 53% discount to its 52-week high. The business underneath that discount posted record EBITDA margins and is still growing.
HOOD’s adjusted EBITDA reached $2.52 billion in 2025, up 76%, with margins expanding to 56% as the platform scaled revenue faster than costs for the third consecutive year, and Street consensus projects around $2.86 billion in 2026 EBITDA at margins that hold above 54% even as management reinvests aggressively into Banking, prediction markets, and international expansion.
Nineteen of 27 analysts covering HOOD rate the stock buy or outperform, with a mean price target of around $103 and a median of around $98, implying roughly 44% upside from current levels, with Wall Street specifically watching whether Q1 2026 transaction revenue holds enough to demonstrate the business can grow EBITDA without a crypto tailwind.
The target spread runs from $50 to $155: the bear end anchors to a second year of crypto weakness and sustained retail trading softness compressing EBITDA back toward 2024 levels, while the $155 bull case prices in Trump Accounts converting to funded brokerage relationships, Robinhood Banking reaching scale, and the Rothera prediction market exchange coming online mid-year with full unit economics.
Trading at roughly 21x 2026 EBITDA on a platform that compounded EBITDA at 76% last year and is still projecting double-digit growth, Robinhood stock is undervalued: the current multiple prices in a business in deceleration, not one that just delivered its third straight year of 50%-plus incremental EBITDA margins.
CFO Shiv Verma noted at the Citizens JMP Technology Conference on March 2 that banking assets had approximately doubled since the February 10 earnings call, a pace that reframes Robinhood Banking as a near-term EBITDA contributor rather than a multi-year buildout still burning capital.
A sustained crypto bear market or a meaningful pullback in retail trading engagement would compress transaction revenue and pressure EBITDA margins faster than Banking and Trump Accounts can offset it.
Q1 2026 earnings on April 28 are the confirmation event: the specific figure to watch is adjusted EBITDA, where the market needs to see whether 54%-plus margins are durable when crypto is not pulling its weight.
Robinhood Stock Financials
Robinhood’s operating income swung from a $540 million loss in 2023 to $1.05 billion in 2024, then nearly doubled again to $2.09 billion in 2025, a profitability trajectory with few parallels in financial services over that two-year span.
The driver is operating leverage: total revenues scaled from $1.87 billion in 2023 to $4.47 billion in 2025, while total operating expenses grew at a far slower pace from $2.38 billion in 2023 to $2.38 billion in 2025, effectively flat in absolute dollar terms as the revenue base more than doubled.
HOOD’s operating margin expanded from -29%in 2023 to 36% in 2024 and then to 46.8% in 2025, a 75-percentage-point recovery in two years that reflects a cost structure built for the platform’s current scale rather than the trading volumes of 2021.
The one tension in the data is that total operating expenses remained essentially flat between 2023 and 2025 in part because 2025 guidance calls for $2.6 to $2.725 billion in adjusted operating expenses and stock-based compensation for 2026, an 18% increase that will test whether revenue growth continues to outpace the cost reinvestment cycle.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
The TIKR mid-case model targets $177.69 for HOOD by December 2030, built on a 14% revenue CAGR, 48% net income margins, and 14% EPS growth compounding from a base that already delivered $2.34 in normalized earnings, implying a 148% total return from current levels at a 21% annualized IRR.
At roughly 30x forward earnings on a platform that just posted 47% operating margins, HOOD is undervalued — the current price reflects the crypto miss, not the profitability story beneath it.
The real question for HOOD is whether its diversification story is real or delayed: the business now has 11 revenue lines above $100 million in annualized revenue, but transaction revenue still drives the majority of results and crypto remains its most volatile component.
What Has to Go Right
- Robinhood Banking deposits, which reportedly doubled in the two weeks following the Q4 earnings call, must reach sufficient scale to anchor net interest income independent of margin balance cycles
- Trump Accounts distribution to 25 million eligible children represents a structural customer acquisition event with no incremental marketing cost, converting to funded accounts at any meaningful rate transforms HOOD’s growth trajectory
- The Rothera prediction market exchange, targeting launch by mid-2026, shifts HOOD from revenue-sharing mode to full vertical ownership of a $300 million-plus annualized revenue category
- EPS normalized is projected to reach $2.69 in 2027 and $3.34 in 2028, compounding at roughly 15% annually from a current price that implies just 30x current-year earnings
What Could Go Wrong
- Crypto represented $967 million of FY2025 revenue; a second year of crypto market compression at the Q4 trajectory (down 38%) removes roughly $350 million from the revenue base, a hit that Banking and prediction markets cannot offset in the near term
- The 2026 expense guidance of $2.6 to $2.725 billion represents an 18% cost increase; if revenue growth decelerates toward the low end of the TIKR model (12.7% CAGR), operating margins compress back toward 2024 levels
- BofA cut its price target to $119 on April 3 citing lower trading activity, lower securities lending revenues, and a higher tax rate, signaling that near-term consensus estimates may still need to come down ahead of April 28 earnings
- Insider selling has been consistent across the executive suite, including CEO Tenev liquidating his entire direct holding of 375,000 shares on April 6 at prices around $70, a signal worth monitoring against the buyback authorization
Should You Invest in Robinhood Markets, Inc.?
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