Key Stats for Dominion Stock
- 52-Week Range: $50.8 to $67.6
- Current Price: $63.2
- Street Mean Target: $65.8
- Street High Target: $69
- TIKR Model Target (Dec. 2030): $91.6
What Happened?
Dominion Energy (D), the regulated electric and gas utility serving Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina, raised its five-year capital investment plan 30% to $65 billion in February while its Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project, a 2.6-gigawatt offshore wind facility that will power more than 600,000 homes, crossed 70% completion, and Dominion Energy stock currently trades at $63.20.
The capital plan increase, announced February 23, reflects surging electricity demand from data centers in Virginia, where Dominion serves the world’s largest data center market, with contracted capacity now exceeding 48.5 gigawatts as customers including Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta expand to meet AI and cloud computing workloads.
The demand signal is already in the financials: weather-normalized electricity sales in Dominion’s Virginia service area grew 5.4% in 2025, all 20 of the peak demand days on record in the Dominion zone have occurred in the last 14 months, and over 20 gigawatts of signed Electrical Service Agreements confirm the load is not speculative.
The CVOW project, originally expected to complete by end of 2026, now targets early 2027 after a Trump administration stop-work order in December added delays and lifted total project costs to $11.5 billion from $11.2 billion, with each additional quarter beyond the current schedule adding an estimated $150 million to $200 million in cost.
Steven Ridge, Executive Vice President and CFO, stated on the Q4 2025 earnings call that “we now expect to achieve the upper half of the 5% to 7% growth rate range starting in 2028,” driven by more regulated investment and rate base growth compounding at approximately 10% annually through 2030.
Dominion’s Virginia State Corporation Commission approved a Certificate of Public Convenience for the Chesterfield Energy Reliability Center, an approximately 1-gigawatt gas-fired generating facility costing roughly $1.5 billion and targeted for service in 2029, addressing what regulators described as an imminent reliability threat as data center load continues to compound.
Wall Street’s Take on D Stock
The $65 billion capital plan reframes Dominion Energy stock from a yield vehicle with CVOW overhang into a regulated growth compounder, and the compounding happens in a service territory where demand visibility extends two decades.
Dominion Energy’s 2026 consensus EPS of $3.59, growing to $3.82 in 2027 and $4.07 in 2028, reflects the regulatory recovery cadence Ridge described: a catch-up year in 2026 from Virginia and South Carolina rate relief, followed by the back-end acceleration as the $65 billion capital base earns its way into rates, all anchored by 10% annual rate base CAGR through 2030.
Dominion Energy stock carries a heavily hold-weighted analyst profile, with 16 holds, 3 buys or outperforms, and 1 underperform among 20 covering analysts, and a mean 12-month target of $65.81 representing 4.1% upside, as the street waits for CVOW turbine installation to de-risk and the upper-half EPS growth guidance to become visible in reported results.
The $59 to $69 target spread is narrower than the investment case warrants: the $59 floor prices in a CVOW cost overrun beyond the current $11.5 billion budget plus regulatory friction on the South Carolina rate case, while the $69 ceiling implies clean CVOW completion, constructive SCC outcomes, and the data center load ramp delivering on the signed ESA backlog.
Trading at roughly 17.6x 2026E EPS of $3.59 against a 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth rate anchored by a $65 billion regulated capital program, Dominion Energy stock is fairly valued at current prices, with the re-rating catalyst dependent on CVOW reaching commercial operation and the upper-half EPS growth guidance materializing in 2028.
The CVOW project remains the single variable that can break the thesis: each additional quarter of turbine installation delay beyond July 2027 adds $150 million to $200 million in costs, and while Stonepeak’s partnership absorbs a portion, a significant overrun would pressure both credit metrics and the regulatory relationship with the Virginia SCC.
Q1 2026 results, scheduled for May 1, will deliver the first turbine installation progress update since February and will confirm whether weather-normalized Virginia sales growth is sustaining the 5%-plus rate that justifies the capital program’s scale.
Dominion Energy Stock’s Financials
Dominion Energy’s operating income grew 18.6% to $5.43 billion in fiscal 2025, the strongest annual improvement since 2023, as revenue grew 14.2% to $16.51 billion driven by the Virginia rate increase and the step-up in customer usage that the data center load expansion produced.
The revenue acceleration reflects the same demand dynamic Ridge and Blue described on the earnings call: weather-normal Virginia sales grew 5.4% in 2025, and the rate base recovery from the biennial review process allowed Dominion to begin earning on the capital already deployed rather than absorbing the lag that had compressed margins in prior years.
Operating margins expanded from 31.6% in fiscal 2024 to 32.9% in fiscal 2025, continuing a recovery from the 20.3% trough in fiscal 2022, a multi-year trajectory that reflects Dominion’s post-business-review focus on regulated utility earnings quality over the asset sales and restructuring charges that weighed on earlier results.
Operations and maintenance costs held essentially flat at $3.50 billion in fiscal 2025 versus $3.52 billion in fiscal 2024, even as revenue grew 14.2%, a sign of the operating efficiency discipline Bob Blue cited as a structural priority and one that will be tested as the $65 billion capital program ramps and O&M pressures from CVOW completion work through the income statement.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
The TIKR model’s mid-case target of $92 assumes 6.2% annual revenue CAGR through 2030 with net income margins of 20.2%, a set of inputs grounded in the 10% rate base CAGR Dominion guided to, the signed ESA and CLOA backlog covering the demand forecast through 2045, and the regulatory recovery cadence Ridge described as biased toward the upper half of the 5% to 7% EPS growth range starting in 2028.
At 45% total return over 4.7 years, Dominion Energy stock is fairly valued at current prices — the model’s return is real, but it is back-end weighted and contingent on CVOW clearing its final construction risk.
The distance between a $78 floor and a $104 ceiling comes down to two sequenced events: CVOW reaches commercial operation on budget, and the Virginia SCC confirms constructive treatment of the $65 billion capital program in rate cases through 2030.
Low Case (5.6% Revenue CAGR, 20.1% Net Income Margin → $78 target, 4.6% annualized)
- CVOW turbine installation extends beyond July 2027, adding $300 million or more in costs above the current $11.5 billion budget, pressuring credit metrics toward the Moody’s downgrade threshold
- South Carolina rate case produces a less constructive outcome than expected, delaying recovery of the $1.4 billion invested in the DESC system since 2023
- Revenue CAGR of 5.6% reflects modest data center ramp below the contracted ESA pace, with Millstone’s double outage year in 2026 and 45Z credit uncertainty adding further earnings drag
High Case (6.9% Revenue CAGR, 19.9% Net Income Margin → $104 target, 11.0% annualized)
- CVOW reaches commercial operation in early 2027 on the current $11.5 billion budget, removing the project’s cost overhang and triggering the regulatory recovery cadence with Stonepeak’s financing partnership intact
- PJM’s $5 billion transmission award, the largest ever granted to Dominion Energy Virginia, begins contributing to rate base earnings ahead of schedule as grid upgrade work advances through 2032
- Data center load growth at existing ESA customers accelerates above the base forecast, pulling incremental capital investment forward into 2027 and 2028
The mid-case requires 6.2% revenue growth and 20.2% net income margins through 2030, a trajectory the 2025 operating results already support, and it requires no multiple expansion from the current roughly 17.6x forward P/E.
What is tracking toward that path right now: 2025 Moody’s CFO pre-working capital to debt reached its highest level since 2012, Virginia weather-normal sales are running at 5.4% growth, and over 70% of CVOW is complete with first power to the grid targeted by end of March.
Should You Invest in Dominion Energy, Inc.?
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