Key Takeaways:
- Broadcom and Marvell are both direct beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure buildout, with Broadcom targeting $100+ billion in AI chip revenue by 2027 and Marvell projecting $15 billion in total revenue by fiscal 2028.
- Broadcom offers stronger margins (77%+ gross margins) and more predictable revenue, but trades at a premium—roughly 20.87x NTM EBITDA versus its historical mean of 13.71x.
- Marvell is cheaper on a relative valuation basis, with a faster earnings growth trajectory projected through 2028, but carries more execution risk as key custom chip programs are still ramping.
- Both stocks offer compelling long-term upside: Broadcom’s valuation model points to 41.3% annualized returns through 2028, while Marvell’s model suggests 27.4% annually, making the choice largely a function of your risk tolerance.
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Two of the hottest names in artificial intelligence semiconductors are Broadcom (AVGO) and Marvell Technology (MRVL).
Both make custom chips and networking silicon that hyperscalers like Google, Meta, and Amazon depend on to build out their AI infrastructure.
Both stocks have pulled back sharply in 2026. And both managements just delivered some of the most bullish guidance in semiconductor history.
So, if you can only pick one, which has the better risk-adjusted setup heading into 2028?
The answer depends on what kind of investor you are.
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The AI infrastructure buildout is still accelerating
Before comparing the two companies, it helps to understand why both are in such a strong position right now.
Hyperscalers, think Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon, are racing to build massive AI data centers. They need custom chips (called XPUs) to train and run their AI models. They also need high-speed networking to connect thousands of those chips together.
That’s exactly what Broadcom and Marvell both provide.
Broadcom CEO Hock Tan said during the company’s March 2026 earnings call that he now has “line of sight” to achieve AI chip revenue “in excess of $100 billion in 2027.”
He said demand from the company’s six custom AI chip customers, including Google, Anthropic, Meta, and OpenAI, is accelerating sharply.
Marvell CEO Matt Murphy was just as confident. He raised his fiscal 2027 revenue forecast to “approaching $11 billion” and said fiscal 2028 revenue could reach $15 billion, a roughly 40% year-over-year (YoY) increase.
He called it “three straight years of data center revenue growth compounding at well over 40%.”
Broadcom’s AI revenue is bigger, but the valuation reflects it
Broadcom is the larger company by far.
- It posted $19.3 billion in revenue in just one quarter (fiscal Q1 2026 ), with AI semiconductor revenue alone hitting $8.4 billion in that single quarter.
- Analyst estimates from TIKR show Broadcom’s annual revenue growing from $104.6 billion in fiscal 2026 to $156.7 billion in fiscal 2027—a 50% jump.
- EBITDA margins are projected to remain near 68%, which is exceptional for a company growing this quickly.
- EPS (normalized) is expected to grow from $11.41 in fiscal 2026 to $17.84 in fiscal 2027, and then to $22.18 by fiscal 2028. That’s a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 30%.
Now here’s the catch: the market already prices Broadcom generously. Its NTM (next 12 months) enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple is currently around 20.87x, well above its long-term historical mean of 13.71x. NTM EV/Revenue sits at 14.24x versus a historical mean of just 8.01x.
The valuation model, using a 26.1x price-to-earnings multiple and fiscal 2028 estimates, targets a stock price of $851.81—roughly 143% upside from its current price of $350.63. That works out to a 41.3% annualized return through October 2028.
Gross margins are also impressive and rising from 75.2% in fiscal 2024 to 77.33% in fiscal 2025. And despite spending nearly $11 billion on research and development annually, margin expansion continues.
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Marvell is smaller, cheaper, and has more to prove but more to gain
Marvell is earlier in its AI ramp. Annual revenue was $8.2 billion in fiscal 2026, growing 42% YoY. But consensus estimates project a sharp acceleration: $10.85 billion in fiscal 2027 and $14.78 billion in fiscal 2028.
EPS (normalized) is seen growing from $2.84 in fiscal 2026 to $3.82 in fiscal 2027 and $5.41 in fiscal 2028. That’s a nearly 90% increase in earnings over two years.
The TIKR valuation model for Marvell targets $226.47 by January 2029 from a current price of $114.45, about 98% total upside, or 27.4% annualized.
That’s a lower annualized return than Broadcom’s model suggests.
But Marvell’s valuation is also less stretched.
Its NTM EV/EBITDA of 26.08x is above its historical mean of 18.25x, but the NTM EV/Revenue of just 9.42x is actually close to its historical mean of 5.87x on an adjusted basis and significantly cheaper than Broadcom’s 14.24x.
The gross margin story is more complicated for Marvell. Margins dropped to 41.64% in fiscal 2024, largely due to product mix, before recovering to 51.02% in fiscal 2026.
Management expects margins to keep improving as higher-margin custom programs scale. R&D spending is also rising, hitting $2.075 billion in fiscal 2026, which reflects heavy investment in next-generation XPU programs, co-packaged optics, and scale-up networking.
Murphy told analysts his company is “engaged in deep technical discussions on innovative new architectures” and sees “a massive opportunity on 2-nanometer and below process technologies.”
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Which AI stock offers the better risk/reward setup?
Here’s the honest bottom line.
Broadcom is the safer, more proven play. It has higher margins, six locked-in custom chip customers, supply chain visibility through 2028, and a management team with a long track record of execution. The bull case , 41% annualized returns, is compelling. The bear case is that the multiple is already elevated, and any slowdown in hyperscaler spending would hit hard.
Marvell is the higher-risk, higher-reward bet. The custom silicon ramp is still early, margins are recovering rather than already established, and the new Tier 1 XPU customer program that management is counting on for 2028 hasn’t shipped at scale yet.
But if even half of what Murphy is projecting materializes, the stock looks cheap at current levels.
For investors comfortable with more volatility, Marvell’s valuation leaves more room for upside surprises. For those who want a steadier ride, Broadcom’s margin profile and revenue visibility make it the more dependable choice.
Both companies are beneficiaries of one of the largest infrastructure buildouts in history. But right now, Marvell may be the more interesting bet because the market hasn’t fully priced in what’s coming.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
