Key Takeaways:
- Nebius is forecast to generate $15.23 billion in revenue by 2028, with gross margins expanding toward 95% — a profile that increasingly resembles a software company rather than a hardware landlord.
- Iren has secured a $9.7 billion Microsoft contract and targets $3.4 billion in annualized run-rate revenue by the end of 2026, backed by over 4.5 gigawatts of secured power — but its margin profile remains thinner than Nebius.
- Both stocks have pulled back sharply from their 2025 highs. Wall Street’s rapidly expanding analyst coverage of both names suggests institutional conviction is building, though Nebius commands a higher valuation multiple and a stronger margin outlook.
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Two artificial intelligence infrastructure plays are grabbing investor attention right now. Both are building the data centers that power the AI boom. Both are early-stage, burning cash, and priced on future potential rather than today’s profits.
But Wall Street doesn’t treat them equally — and the gap is wider than you might think.
Nebius Group (NBIS) and Iren Limited (IREN) are chasing the same tailwind: surging demand for GPU compute. The question is which one has stronger analyst conviction. The numbers tell a clear story.
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Why traditional earnings metrics don’t work here
Before comparing the two, it helps to understand what each company does.
Nebius is the Amsterdam-listed rebuild of Yandex’s core AI and cloud infrastructure business. After geopolitical events forced its founding team out of Russia in 2022, chief executive Arkady Volozh and hundreds of engineers relocated to Europe and restarted from scratch.
Today, Nebius operates a full-stack AI cloud — think GPU clusters, managed storage, and developer tools — targeting AI start-ups and enterprises that need compute but can’t afford to build their own.
At a Morgan Stanley conference in March 2026, Volozh described the ambition plainly: the company is targeting nearly one gigawatt of active power this year and has a pipeline reserved for up to three gigawatts.
“Demand far exceeds our supply,” Nebius Chief Revenue Officer Marc Boroditsky told the audience, according to the conference transcript.
Iren is an Australian-founded company that spent seven years as a Bitcoin miner before pivoting hard into AI cloud hosting.
It now operates 810 megawatts of existing data centers — predominantly air-cooled, which is increasingly in demand — and has secured a $9.7 billion AI contract with Microsoft.
On Iren’s Feb. 5 earnings call, Co-CEO Daniel Roberts said the company is on track to deliver 140,000 GPUs by the end of 2026, targeting $3.4 billion in annualized run-rate revenue.
Neither company is profitable in a traditional sense yet. That means the right lens isn’t price-to-earnings.
For early-stage, high-growth infrastructure plays like these, what matters is revenue trajectory, gross margin expansion, cash burn, and enterprise value-to-revenue (EV/Revenue) multiples.
What analyst estimates reveal for NBIS and IREN
According to TIKR.com’s estimates, Nebius has 15 analysts covering the stock as of April 9, 2026, up from just two in mid-2025. That rapid growth in coverage is itself a signal — it means more institutional desks are paying attention.
The mean price target is $162, compared with a recent close of $136.33. That’s roughly 19% implied upside. The Street’s high target is $291.
Revenue estimates show why analysts are so interested.
Nebius is forecast to generate $3.29 billion in revenue for the fiscal year ending Dec. 31, 2026, scaling to $9.73 billion by 2027 and $15.23 billion by 2028.
Gross margin is expected to expand from roughly 70% in 2026 to 95% by 2028 — a profile that starts to look like that of a software company, not just a hardware landlord.
Iren has 16 analysts covering it, also a growing base, with a mean price target of $72.07 versus a recent close of $37.06. That implies roughly a 94% upside relative to the mean — a wide gap that reflects both optimism and uncertainty.
Revenue estimates project $1.01 billion for fiscal year 2026 (ending June 30), climbing to $2.95 billion by 2027 and $4.53 billion by 2028.
The growth rates are aggressive for both names. But Nebius is forecast to be a larger, higher-margin business faster — and the Street’s expanding coverage reflects that.
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EV/Revenue tells the valuation story
On EV/Revenue, Nebius currently trades at roughly 10.84 times the next 12 months’ revenue. That’s above its long-run mean of 5.93 times but well off the 31-times peak hit during the AI frenzy of mid-2025.
Iren trades at approximately 7.16 times NTM revenue above its historical mean of 3.60 times, but down from a 2025 peak near 17 times.
Both stocks have pulled back meaningfully from their highs. Both look cheaper than they did a year ago.
But Nebius commands a premium multiple, and analysts appear to justify it with higher forecast margins and a software-leaning revenue model rather than a pure infrastructure play.
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The bottom line for investors
Iren offers greater upside relative to Street targets and a massive contracted revenue base via Microsoft.
For investors who want a pure AI infrastructure build-out story with tangible power assets, it’s a compelling bet.
Nebius carries a higher current valuation but faster forecast growth, better projected margins, and rapidly deepening analyst coverage.
Management’s commentary at Morgan Stanley — including demand exceeding supply and customers paying 100% upfront — points to a business with real pricing power.
Wall Street appears to believe in both. But when measured by analyst coverage growth, margin expansion forecasts, and revenue scale, Nebius has the stronger institutional conviction right now.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
