Key Stats for UPST Stock
- Past week’s performance: -8.38%
- 52-week range: $29 to $87
- Valuation model target price: $94
- Implied upside: 221.9% over 2.8 years
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What Happened?
Shares of AI-powered consumer lender Upstart (UPST) fell about 8% this week, with the stock closing near $29 after several company-specific developments kept investor sentiment cautious.
The decline followed the company’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings release, where revenue growth returned but forward expectations remained measured. Upstart reported Q4 revenue growth of 35% year over year, driven primarily by higher platform fees and increased loan origination activity, but investors focused on the pace of recovery rather than the absolute improvement.
Management changes also weighed on the stock during the week. Upstart announced a leadership transition in which co-founder Paul Gu will assume the CEO role later this year, while founder Dave Girouard moves into an executive chair position. At the same time, the company named Sanjay Datta as president and announced that Andrea Blankmeyer will join as chief financial officer, adding to near-term uncertainty as investors assess strategic continuity.
In addition, Upstart introduced a new monthly origination metrics webpage, which increases transparency but also introduces more frequent data points that could amplify short-term stock volatility between earnings reports.
Late in the week, Upstart announced two notable auto lending funding actions. The company said it sold a $333 million portfolio of auto loans to affiliates of Bayview Asset Management and also entered into a $200 million forward-flow agreement with Wafra. These transactions were designed to improve balance sheet flexibility and support future originations, but they also reinforced investor focus on funding conditions and capital markets access.
Overall, the stock’s recent weakness reflects valuation sensitivity and lingering concerns around loan demand and funding stability rather than any single negative operational surprise.
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Is UPST Stock Undervalued?
Under valuation model assumptions realized through 12/31/28, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue growth (CAGR): 0.5%
- Operating margins: 9.8%
- Exit P/E multiple: 10.0x
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $94, which implies a 221.9% total return from the current share price and a 50.4% annualized return over the next 2.8 years.
Those assumptions depend heavily on stable credit performance and consistent access to funding markets, because Upstart’s platform revenue scales with loan originations and partner confidence. Investors are also monitoring operating margins, since recent improvements suggest the business can generate profitability even at moderate revenue growth levels.
With earnings now behind the company, attention is likely to remain on monthly origination disclosures, capital market transactions, and management execution as the primary drivers of the stock’s near-term direction.
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