Key Stats for United Parcel Service Stock
- Past-Week Performance: 2%
- 52-Week Range: $82 to $124
- Valuation Model Target Price: $141
- Implied Upside: 33% over 2.9 years
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What Happened?
UPS stock rose about 2% over the past week, trading near $110, as investors reacted to a combination of company updates, income appeal, and shifting institutional positioning.
The stock moved higher as buying interest outweighed selling after UPS reiterated confidence in its earnings and cash flow outlook.
Management reaffirmed its $1.64 quarterly dividend and 2026 revenue guidance of about $89.7 billion, keeping the stock’s dividend yield near 6%, which continued to attract income-focused investors following recent weakness.
Business-specific news also helped support sentiment. UPS has recently expanded its focus on healthcare logistics and time-definite international shipping, areas that carry higher margins and more stable demand than standard domestic ground volumes.
The company also continues to roll out automation across sorting hubs and last-mile operations, reinforcing management’s push to protect margins even as overall shipment volumes remain mixed.
Institutional filings showed mixed but active repositioning. Thrivent Financial for Lutherans trimmed its stake by 1.7%, selling 12,619 shares to hold 709,764 shares worth about $59.29 million, while Woodmont Investment Counsel cut its position by 38%. Donaldson Capital Management reduced its stake by 94.5%, selling 270,047 shares, reflecting continued caution around near-term volume trends.
At the same time, other investors added exposure. Syntax Research Inc. increased its stake by 230.2%, while Independent Advisor Alliance raised its position by 53.4% to 64,297 shares worth about $5.37 million.
Overall institutional ownership remains solid at roughly 60.26%, suggesting selective repositioning rather than broad selling shaped trading during the week.
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Is UPS Undervalued?
Under valuation model assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 2.6%
- Operating Margins: 10.3%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 13.9x
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $141, implying 33% total upside from current levels over the next 2.9 years.
Over the next year, results are likely shaped by margin recovery tied to cost discipline and automation, alongside gradual stabilization in U.S. domestic volumes.
Higher-margin international and healthcare logistics remain important contributors, as these areas support stronger pricing and more resilient demand.
At current levels, UPS appears undervalued, with future performance likely driven by execution and efficiency gains rather than a sharp rebound in top-line growth.
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