Key Takeaways:
- Macau Demand Recovery: Las Vegas Sands stock reflects renewed Macau travel demand, with Q4 revenue rising 26% as visitation and gaming volumes improved.
- Margin Rebuild: Las Vegas Sands stock benefits from cost normalization, with operating margins projected at 26% as scale returns across Macau and Singapore.
- Price Target: Based on 5% revenue growth and a 17x exit multiple, Las Vegas Sands stock could reach $72 by December 2028.
- Valuation Upside: This implies 38% total upside from the current $52 price, translating to about 12% annualized returns over 3 years.
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) owns large-scale resort destinations in Macau and Singapore, controlling premium assets that anchor regional tourism and gaming demand across Asia.
Last week in January, Las Vegas Sands reported quarterly revenue of $4 billion, beating expectations as Macau demand recovered faster than anticipated.
Las Vegas Sands generated about $13 billion in LTM revenue, supporting operating margins near 26% as fixed costs normalize with higher resort utilization.
LVS stock’s net income reached roughly $2 billion LTM, strengthening cash generation and supporting capital returns for a company with a market capitalization near $40 billion.
Las Vegas Sands trades near $53 while valuation points toward $72, creating tension between improving fundamentals and cautious investor expectations.
What the Model Says for LVS Stock
We assessed LVS stock using assumptions tied to Macau demand recovery, Singapore stability, and operating scale across integrated resort assets.
Based on 4.9% revenue growth, 26.4% operating margins, and a 16.7x exit multiple, the model projects shares reaching $73.
That implies 38% total upside, or about 12% annual returns through 2028, supported by cash generation and margin recovery.
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for LVS stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 4.9%
LVS generated about $13 billion in LTM revenue, rebounding strongly after travel restrictions lifted across Macau and Singapore during 2023 and 2024.
Recent growth slowed versus the initial rebound phase as Macau visitation normalized, with 2025 revenue rising 5% while adjusted property EBITDA declined slightly.
Forward growth depends on steady mass-market demand in Macau and stable premium tourism at Marina Bay Sands, offset by volatile VIP volumes and regional competition.
According to consensus analyst estimates, a 4.9% revenue growth assumption balances post-recovery normalization with continued tourism strength across LVS’s core Asian resort portfolio.
2. Operating Margins: 26.4%
LVS stock historically generated operating margins above 25% during stable demand cycles, supported by high fixed-cost absorption across large integrated resort assets.
Margins improved to about 21% recently as revenue recovered, though earnings remained pressured by labor costs, promotional activity, and softer high-margin VIP play.
As visitation stabilizes, operating leverage from hotel, retail, and gaming floors supports margin expansion, while risks include wage inflation and regulatory cost pressure.
In line with analyst consensus projections, operating margins around 26.4% reflect normalized resort utilization without assuming peak cycle profitability.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 16.7x
Historically. LVS has traded at earnings multiples between roughly 15x and 20x during periods of steady cash flow and clear demand visibility.
Current valuation reflects investor caution following recent Macau earnings volatility, even as long-term tourism fundamentals remain intact.
Sustained earnings growth requires consistent mass-market demand, stable Singapore performance, and controlled operating costs across the portfolio.
Based on street consensus estimates, a 16.7x exit multiple reflects balanced expectations for normalized earnings, regional risk, and durable cash generation.
What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
LVS stock’s outcomes depend on Macau mass demand, Singapore stability, and cost control, setting up varied paths through 2030.
- Low Case: If Macau demand softens and costs stay elevated, revenue grows around 3.8% → 4.8% annualized return.
- Mid Case: With steady Macau traffic and stable Singapore performance, revenue growth near 4.2% → 9.1% annualized return.
- High Case: If mass-market demand strengthens and costs scale efficiently, revenue reaches 4.7% → 12.8% annualized return.
How Much Upside Does It Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
