Key Stats for UnitedHealth Stock
- Past-Week Performance: 6%
- 52-Week Range: $235 to $606
- Current Price: $289
- Valuation Model Target: $596.5
What Happened to UnitedHealth Stock?
UnitedHealth (UNH) stock peaked near $355 in mid-January 2026 before falling sharply to $289.09 by February 17, 2026, returning (14.1%) year-to-date despite recovering +6.0% in the past week.
UnitedHealth stock reported Q4 2025 revenue of $113.2B on January 27, falling slightly below the IBES estimate of $113.8B, alongside a FY2026 revenue outlook of $439.0B.
The FY2026 revenue outlook of $439B represents a projected (0.8%) contraction versus FY2025 actuals of $447.6B — the first revenue decline in the company’s recent reported history.
FY2025 operating income fell 41.3% year-over-year to $19.0B, with operating margins compressing to 4.2% from 8.1% in FY2024, the sharpest single-year margin deterioration in the data provided.
Molina Healthcare forecast 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $5.00 on February 5, 2026, sharply below the $13.76 analyst estimate, with its medical cost ratio projected at 92.6% versus an estimate of 89.78%; UNH shares fell 2.9% in extended trading following that announcement.
Centene reported a Q4 medical cost ratio of 94.3% on February 6, 2026, up from 89.6% a year earlier, while its 2026 revenue forecast of $186.5B–$190.5B trailed the $193.4B Street estimate.
A New York state court set June 8, 2026 as the trial date for Luigi Mangione, accused of fatally shooting UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson; a separate federal trial remains scheduled for October 13, 2026.
Viking Global reported a new stake of 1.2 million UNH shares as of December 31, 2025, while Tiger Global cut its UNH position by 4.2% to 420,205 shares over the same period, per SEC filings.
Buy and Outperform ratings combined total 21 out of 29 analysts as of February 17, 2026. The consensus mean target of $368 sits 27.3% above the current $289 close. Sell ratings have held steady at 2 since December 2025, while Buys recovered slightly from 14 to 15.
What the Market is Telling Us About UNH Stock
UNH peaked near $355 in mid-January 2026 before falling to $289.09 by February 17, returning (14.1%) year-to-date.
- Operating income collapsed 41.3% in FY2025, with margins compressing from 8.1% to 4.2%, the steepest single-year deterioration in the data provided.
- FY2026 revenue is projected to contract (0.8%) to $439.0B, marking the first expected revenue decline in UnitedHealth’s recent history.
- Industry-wide cost pressure confirmed: Molina, Centene, and Cigna all reported medical cost ratios above estimates, with Molina’s 2026 EPS forecast falling 64% below Street expectations.
UnitedHealth remains the largest player in managed care by revenue, with FY2025 actuals of $447.6B and Buy or Outperform ratings from 21 of 29 covering analysts.
The ongoing Luigi Mangione trial, with state proceedings set for June 8 and federal trial on October 13, 2026, represents an active legal overhang directly naming the company.
Viking Global initiated a new 1.2 million share position in UNH as of December 31, 2025, while Tiger Global reduced its stake by 4.2% over the same period.
FY2026 estimates project a partial recovery in EBITDA to $28.1B and EPS to $17.85, up from $16.35 in FY2025, against a backdrop of still-elevated industry medical costs.
UNH stock is down (14.1%) YTD, pulling back from the mid-January peak of $355. Net income fell to $12.1B in FY2025 from $22.4B at its FY2023 peak, a 46% two-year decline.
The next key developments are the June 8 state trial for Luigi Mangione and any FY2026 cost ratio disclosures. Medical cost trends across Molina, Centene, and Cigna remain the sector variable to watch.
How Much Upside Does UNH Stock Have From Here?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
