Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin Confluence: Strategy stock jumped 16% to $154 on September 18.
- Street Split: TIKR tracks 16 analysts on Strategy stock, split between 13 buys, 2 outperforms and 1 hold, and the $229 mean target still sits 48% above Friday’s closing price.
- Regulatory Tailwind: A House committee advanced a federal Bitcoin reserve bill on Wednesday and the SEC cleared tokenized stock trading platforms Thursday, feeding Friday’s rally.
- Target Cuts: Strategy’s mean target has fallen from $530 to $229 across five straight quarters even as the company’s Bitcoin holdings grew to 840,050 coins.
Why Strategy Stock Jumped 16% as Bitcoin and Washington Aligned
Strategy (MSTR) stock surged 16% to close at $154 on Friday, September 18, as a Bitcoin rally collided with two Bitcoin-friendly moves out of Washington. Strategy stock behaves as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy, so when Bitcoin snapped back above $80,000 on short covering in the derivatives market, the equity amplified the move well beyond crypto’s own gain.
Two regulatory developments compounded it within 48 hours. On Wednesday, September 16, the House Financial Services Committee voted 28-21 to advance H.R. 8957, a bill that would establish a federal Strategic Bitcoin Reserve requiring 20-year mandatory custody of any coins held. The SEC followed a day later with a temporary exemption letting qualifying blockchain-based venues trade tokenized U.S. stocks, expanding the market structure crypto-linked equities now trade inside.
CEO Phong Le used the moment to reaffirm the company’s treasury position, putting the current holding at 840,050 Bitcoin. “This is not a sell Bitcoin forever strategy,” Le said. “This is a buy Bitcoin forever strategy.” The line lands against a real precedent: Strategy sold Bitcoin twice this year, 32 coins in late May and 3,588 coins in early July, both times to fund preferred dividends. Reasserting the accumulation thesis mattered to a market still parsing what those sales meant for the company’s discipline.
None of that changes what Strategy is worth off its underlying business. It does reset, for one session, the sentiment discount the stock had been carrying relative to the Bitcoin it holds.
MSTR Stock’s Street Targets Keep Falling, But Buys Keep Rising
TIKR tracks 16 analysts on Strategy stock as of September 18, split between 13 buys, 2 outperforms and 1 hold. The mean target sits at $229, 48% above Friday’s $154 close, and the median target of $200 still implies 30% upside even at the more conservative end of the range.
That mean target has come down every single quarter for a year. It stood at $530 in June 2025, climbed to $567 by September as the stock kept rallying, then fell alongside the share price itself: $490 by year-end, $374 by March, $338 by June. Even through that slide, the target-to-price ratio never flipped bearish. It ranged from a 31% premium in the strongest quarter to an extraordinary 289% premium last June, when Strategy stock had collapsed to $87 while analysts still modeled $338. Coverage held up the whole time too, moving from 14 analysts issuing price targets in June 2025 to 15 today, even as the stock lost roughly 62% of its value over that stretch.
The more telling shift sits in the ratings mix itself. A year ago, Strategy stock carried 8 buys, 5 outperforms, a hold, a no-opinion rating and a sell. Today the no-opinions and the sell are gone, and buys have grown to 13 against just 2 outperforms and 1 hold. Analysts spent a brutal year cutting dollar targets while consolidating around outright buy ratings, which reads less like capitulation and more like a Street that priced in Bitcoin’s decline early and is now betting the accumulation strategy survives it.
Should You Invest in Strategy Incorporated?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
