Key Takeaways for Qualcomm Stock as of July 2026
- Beat-and-Miss Split: Revenue of $9.95B beat the $9.67B Street estimate by 2.84%, but adjusted EPS of $2.21 missed the $2.22 estimate and fell 20.22% YoY.
- Apple Cliff Confirmed: Qualcomm guided Q4 revenue of $9.7B-$10.5B and EPS of $2.05-$2.25, while flagging a ~50% sequential drop in Apple revenue as iPhone chip share falls below its prior 20% estimate.
- Automotive Record: QCT automotive revenue hit $1.6B, up 61% YoY.
- Pricing Pass-Through: CEO Cristiano Amon said double-digit price increases are “just a pass-through” of surging memory and wafer costs, calling the hikes “actually small” next to the industry’s bill-of-materials inflation.
Qualcomm Stock Absorbs an Accelerated Apple Exit as Auto and Data Center Surge
Qualcomm (QCOM) reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of $9,947 million on July 29, 2026, beating the Street’s $9,672.35 million estimate by 2.84% and landing at the high end of its own guide. Adjusted earnings per share of $2.21 missed the $2.22 estimate and fell 20.22% year over year, while GAAP EPS of $1.87 beat the $1.40 estimate by 33.46%. Revenue still slipped 4.03% year over year and 6.15% sequentially, a decline management pinned on memory-driven weakness across handsets and consumer electronics, a headwind that is now shaping the entire near-term case for Qualcomm stock.
That weakness sharpened considerably on the call. CFO Akash Palkhiwala disclosed that Qualcomm’s share of the next iPhone launch will land materially below the 20% it had previously modeled, driving an expected 50% sequential drop in Apple product revenue between the September and December quarters. Combined with continued memory scarcity, that step-down pushed QCT (Qualcomm CDMA Technologies) handset revenue for the quarter to $5.1 billion, and management now expects the entire non-handset business, growing more than 60% year over year in fiscal 2027, to replace the $7.5 billion in Apple product revenue exiting the model.
Margins absorbed the brunt of the disruption, with EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of $3,172 million missing the $3,239.12 million estimate by 2.07% and margin compressing 645 basis points year over year to 31.89%. CEO Cristiano Amon addressed the input cost spike directly on Qualcomm’s Q3 earnings call: “Even a double-digit price increase, which is just a pass-through of the input cost increase and wafer price increases, it’s actually small when you compare it to the order of magnitude of the memory bill of materials.” Qualcomm is raising prices broadly, but Amon said the industry is running at the kind of full utilization last seen during the pandemic, leaving gross margins likely to stay below the company’s 48% to 50% baseline range for another few quarters.
Automotive supplied the clearest offset. QCT automotive revenue hit a record $1.6 billion, up 61% year over year, and Qualcomm raised its fiscal 2026 exit run rate target to roughly $7 billion from the $6 billion it guided last quarter, helped by a new multi-generation agreement with BMW. Data center revenue is set to begin in the December quarter from two hyperscaler custom-silicon engagements already in wafer production, part of a fiscal 2029 non-handset revenue target Qualcomm just raised to $40 billion from $22 billion. Management now expects each of those two hyperscaler engagements to generate more than $1 billion in custom silicon revenue within fiscal 2027, backed by secured wafer capacity and memory commitments that de-risk the ramp.”
For the fourth quarter, Qualcomm guided revenue of $9.7 billion to $10.5 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.05 to $2.25, with QCT automotive revenue expected to grow roughly 60% year over year again.
TIKR Values Qualcomm Stock at $463, Pricing In the Non-Handset Pivot
TIKR’s mid-case model values Qualcomm at $463 by September 2030, implying a 197% total return from the current price of $156, or 30% annualized over the next 4.2 years.
That return profile puts Qualcomm stock among the more undervalued large-cap semiconductor names, with the model pricing in several years of compounding before the non-handset businesses fully replace the Apple revenue base.
The target is reachable because automotive is already running at a $7 billion annualized pace and data center revenue begins layering in this December quarter, giving Qualcomm two multiyear growth engines to offset the accelerated Apple exit. Margin recovery from the pricing actions Amon described adds further support as the input cost pressure eases through fiscal 2027.
Should You Invest in Qualcomm Incorporated?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Qualcomm Incorporated stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Qualcomm Incorporated alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Access Professional Tools to Analyze QCOM stock on TIKR for Free →
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
