Key Stats for Palantir Stock
- Current Price: $142.76
- Target Price (Mid): ~$485
- Street Target (Mean): ~$186
- Potential Total Return: ~240%
- Annualized IRR: ~30% / year
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What Happened?
Palantir (PLTR) has fallen 31% from its November 2025 peak of $207.52, and investors are split on whether that drop is an entry point or a reality check.
Bulls point to Q4 2025 results that CEO Alex Karp called “one of the truly iconic performances in the history of corporate performance or technology.” Bears, led by Michael Burry, argue the AI arms race is passing Palantir by and the stock still prices in perfection.
The sharpest decline came on April 8, when Burry posted on X that “Anthropic is eating Palantir’s lunch,” citing Anthropic’s surge from $9 billion to $30 billion in annual recurring revenue within months.
The post was deleted, but Palantir closed April 9 at $130.49, down 7.30%, on volume 82% above its three-month average. The stock hit a max drawdown of 38.19% from its 52-week high on April 10.
Since then, Wedbush’s Dan Ives called Burry’s thesis a “fictional narrative,” President Trump praised Palantir’s “warfighting capabilities” on Truth Social, and Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment bought 85,500 shares at the low.
The next binary event is Q1 2026 earnings on May 4.
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Is Palantir Undervalued Today?
The Q4 2025 numbers don’t match the narrative the stock price tells. Per Palantir’s Q4 2025 earnings release, revenue grew 70% year over year to $1.407 billion, the company’s highest growth rate as a public company. U.S. commercial revenue surged 137% to $507 million.
U.S. government revenue grew 66% to $570 million. Total contract value hit a record $4.262 billion, up 138% year over year. Full-year 2025 revenue reached $4.475 billion.
For 2026, management guided revenue of $7.19 billion at the midpoint (61% growth), with U.S. commercial expected to exceed $3.144 billion, implying at least 115% growth.
CFO David Glazer is committed to GAAP operating income and net income in every quarter of 2026. The Q4 Rule of 40 score (a measure combining revenue growth and profit margin) hit 127.
Ryan Taylor, Chief Revenue Officer and Chief Legal Officer, stated on the call: “We are the only enterprise software company that made a conscious choice to focus exclusively on scaling the leverage made possible by AI models in production.”
Burry’s counter-argument has structural weight. He contends that Palantir’s model of embedding Forward Deployed Engineers at client sites is structurally expensive compared to Anthropic’s plug-and-play API approach. The vulnerability was real: when a Pentagon dispute with Anthropic over safety guardrails forced Palantir to remove Claude from its Maven Smart Systems and rebuild parts of the platform, it exposed genuine dependency risk.
The government moat, however, is structural in a different way.
In a March 9 memo, Deputy Secretary of Defense Steve Feinberg directed the Pentagon to designate Palantir’s Maven Smart System as an official program of record, locking in stable, long-term funding across all branches by September 2026.
Palantir also holds an Army enterprise agreement worth up to $10 billion over ten years. Anthropic cannot operate inside classified environments.
A customer quoted on Palantir’s Q4 2025 earnings call captured the commercial stickiness: “97% of our employees use Foundry every day. The ontology is the secret weapon. Nothing else comes close.”
Valuation is where the bears have the clearest case.
According to TIKR data, Palantir trades at 46.03x NTM EV/Revenue and 78.98x NTM EV/EBITDA. Microsoft trades at 8.97x NTM EV/Revenue and 14.84x NTM EV/EBITDA. ServiceNow trades at 5.77x NTM EV/Revenue. The software peer mean across 30 comparables on TIKR sits at 4.97x NTM EV/Revenue and 11.52x NTM EV/EBITDA.
Palantir trades at roughly nine times the sector revenue multiple. That premium only holds if U.S. commercial growth continues to accelerate through May 4.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $142.76
- Target Price (Mid): ~$485
- Potential Total Return: ~240%
- Annualized IRR: ~30% / year
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The TIKR mid-case model targets approximately $485 by December 31, 2030, implying around 240% total return and around 30% annualized IRR. The two primary revenue drivers are continued U.S. commercial AIP adoption, expanding from $2.07 billion in FY2025, and sustained government revenue growth anchored by the Maven program of record and the $10 billion Army agreement. The margin driver is operating leverage: gross margin has held above 82%, with net income margins projected to expand toward around 48% at mid-decade as revenue scales without proportional headcount growth.
The primary risk is multiple compression. LTM free cash flow of $1.26 billion against an enterprise value of $334.6 billion puts the free cash flow yield under 0.4%. Any meaningful deceleration from the 61% revenue growth guided for 2026 would compress the 79x NTM EV/EBITDA multiple sharply. The high case reaches approximately $985, annualizing at around 25% IRR. The low case reaches approximately $467, annualizing at around 15% IRR, and reflects growth moderating into the low-20% range as competitive pressure builds.
Conclusion
The single metric to watch on May 4 is U.S. commercial revenue. Palantir guided Q1 2026 total revenue of $1.532–$1.536 billion. If U.S. commercial comes in below $500 million, it marks the first deceleration in over a year and gives Burry’s thesis hard evidence. If it clears $550 million, the competitive pressure narrative weakens materially.
Palantir is not cheap on any conventional metric. But it may be the only enterprise AI platform with simultaneous government lock-in at the highest classification levels and ten consecutive quarters of revenue growth acceleration. Whether that combination justifies nine times the sector multiple is the question May 4 will begin to answer.
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Should You Invest in Palantir?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
