Key Stats for PCAR Stock
- Year-to-Date Performance: 6%
- 52-Week Range: $85 to $132
- Valuation Model Target Price: $134
- Implied Upside: 16%
Analyze your favorite stocks like PACCAR Inc with TIKR (It’s free) >>>
What Happened?
PACCAR stock is up about 6% year to date, recently trading near $116 per share as sentiment across the heavy-duty truck sector improves following a weak period in 2025.
The stock has started to recover as investors shift focus from declining freight demand toward early signs of stabilization in trucking activity, with broader stabilization across competitors like Daimler Truck, Volvo, and Traton Group.
The stock is moving higher primarily because freight conditions are improving, including higher spot rates and loads, which signal that trucking demand is beginning to recover.
Compared to peers like Daimler Truck and Volvo, PACCAR is benefiting from its business mix, as a larger share of its earnings comes from parts and financial services, which generate recurring, higher-margin revenue even when new truck sales remain under pressure.
PACCAR reinforced that outlook at its 2026 Investor Conference, with management projecting first-quarter deliveries of about 33,000 units and gross margins of 12.5% to 13%, while full-year parts sales are expected to grow 4% to 8% and financial services remain strong.
The company reported 2025 revenue of $28.4 billion and adjusted net income of $2.6 billion, reflecting a shift toward more stable, higher-quality earnings, and CEO Preston Feight noted that “’26 should be better,” pointing to improving freight conditions and a more consistent regulatory and tariff backdrop.
Institutional positioning remained active and mixed, with Bank of America trimming its stake by 9.2% to about 12.8 million shares and Wellington Management reducing holdings by 11.9% to about 19.4 million shares, while firms including Danske Bank A/S initiated a new position of about 321,681 shares and Bank of Nova Scotia increased its stake by 91% to roughly 348,083 shares.
Additional accumulation from investors like Lighthouse Investment Partners, which raised its stake by over 486%, and Connor Clark & Lunn, which increased holdings by about 64%, highlights continued interest, while overall institutional ownership remains high at about 64.9%, suggesting long-term conviction despite ongoing portfolio rebalancing.
Value PACCAR Inc instantly (Free with TIKR) >>>
Is PCAR Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 7.4%
- Operating Margins: 11.9%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 16x
PACCAR’s earnings are becoming more stable as a larger portion of profit comes from parts and financial services rather than new truck sales.
This matters because parts revenue comes from maintaining trucks already in operation, creating consistent demand, while financing provides another recurring income stream tied to vehicle sales.
Revenue growth over the next few years is expected to come from a gradual recovery in truck demand, driven by aging fleets that need replacement and improving freight activity.
At the same time, PACCAR has a meaningful opportunity to expand parts penetration, particularly in the higher-spend second-owner market where maintenance needs increase over time.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for PACCAR Inc (It’s free) >>>
Margins are supported by pricing discipline, efficient manufacturing, and a higher mix of aftermarket revenue, which helps offset pressure from lower truck volumes.
Financing income and connected vehicle services further strengthen earnings by adding diversified revenue streams tied to the installed base.
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of about $134, implying roughly 16% total upside over the next few years, indicating the stock appears modestly undervalued at current prices.
At current levels, PACCAR appears slightly undervalued, with future performance driven by improving truck demand, continued growth in parts and services, and a more stable earnings base.
How Much Upside Does PCAR Stock Have From Here?
Investors can estimate PACCAR Inc potential share price, or what any stock could be worth, in under a minute using TIKR’s New Valuation Model tool.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
Value PACCAR Inc in under 60 seconds with TIKR (It’s free) >>>
