Key Stats for CoStar Stock
- Past-Week Performance: -3.4%
- 52-Week Range: $40.8 to $97.4
- Current Price: $41.5
What Happened?
CoStar Group (CSGP), a real estate data and marketplace platform generating $3.2 billion in annual revenue, posted its 59th consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth while its residential business crossed $1.46 billion in 2025 revenue, yet the stock trades at $41.46, near its 52-week low of $40.78.
CoStar reported Q4 revenue of $900 million against the IBES estimate of $886 million, with adjusted EPS of $0.31 beating the $0.27 consensus, while guiding Q1 2026 revenue of $890 million to $900 million and full-year adjusted EBITDA of $740 million to $800 million.
Homes.com, CoStar’s residential listings portal competing directly against Zillow and Realtor.com, grew 63% in 2025 and crossed $100 million in annualized agent subscription revenue with 31,000 subscribers, while Zillow’s rental traffic fell 48% year-over-year in January per comScore data.
Andrew Florance, Founder and CEO, stated on the Q4 2025 earnings call that “in just 2 years, Homes.com has become the fastest-growing residential portal in the U.S.,” underpinned by January 2026 organic traffic rising 134% year-over-year and Homes AI users spending 16 minutes 50 seconds per session versus 4 minutes 24 seconds for non-AI users.
CoStar’s $1.5 billion share repurchase program, a targeted 26% residential revenue growth in 2026, management’s long-term projection of $4.75 billion in Homes.com revenue, and a clear EBITDA expansion glide path toward 50% residential margins position the company as the most data-entrenched challenger to incumbent real estate portals over the next decade.
Wall Street’s Take on CSGP Stock
The 59-quarter revenue growth streak confirms CoStar’s top-line durability, but the real inflection now is free cash flow, which recovered from negative $250 million in 2024 to $40 million in 2025 as Homes.com brand-launch spending peaks.
The TIKR model projects 2026 normalized EPS of $1.31, up 50.6% from $0.87 in 2025, anchored by the $300 million reduction in Homes.com net investment and EBITDA expanding from $442 million to a midpoint of $770 million as marketing spend front-loads into Q1 and Q2 then fades.
Fifteen of nineteen covering analysts rate CSGP a buy or outperform, with a mean price target of $64.89 implying 56.5% upside from $41.46, reflecting Street confidence in Homes.com’s 63% revenue growth rate and the company’s confirmed residential profitability path in 2026.
The analyst price target range spans $40.00 to $100.00, a spread that maps directly to two known variables: the low anchors to continued Homes.com execution risk and the CMA hotel data probe, while the high assumes Homes AI engagement converts subscribers at scale and LoopNet’s 43% sales force expansion delivers.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
The TIKR mid-case target of $103.65, implying a 150% total return and 21.2% IRR by December 2030, is built on a 14.3% revenue CAGR and net income margins expanding from 11.2% in 2025 to 17.9% by 2030, both supported by the Homes.com investment glide path and confirmed CoStar Australia and LoopNet Europe expansion.
The market is pricing CSGP near its 52-week low while FCF is set to expand from $40 million in 2025 to $490 million in 2026, a 1,101.6% jump the stock price has not acknowledged.
Homes AI users submit 7x more email leads than non-users, a unit economics signal that directly supports the TIKR model’s assumption of accelerating Homes.com subscriber growth toward the $103.65 target.
Also, management’s confirmation of residential segment profitability in 2026, backed by a $500 million accelerated share repurchase already executing this quarter, signals this is a deliberate capital return inflection, not a distressed valuation.
The one development that breaks the model is Homes.com subscriber growth stalling; at 31,000 agents generating $100 million annualized revenue against 750,000 targeted top agents, any deceleration collapses the residential margin expansion timeline.
Watch Q1 2026 residential revenue against the $420 million to $425 million guidance range; a miss signals Homes AI engagement has not yet converted to paid subscriptions at the pace the model requires.
Should You Invest in CoStar Group, Inc.?
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