Key Stats for NVDA Stock
- Past-Week Performance: 1%
- 52-Week Range: $87 to $212
- Valuation Model Target Price: $293
- Implied Upside: 57% over 2 years
What Happened?
Nvidia stock (NVDA) rose about 1% during the past week, trading within its recent range near highs after multiple product, investment, and competitive announcements.
Last week, Nvidia unveiled open-source AI weather forecasting models and announced a $2 billion strategic investment in data center operator CoreWeave.
Management introduced three Earth-2 AI models targeting faster weather simulations, while emphasizing cost efficiency, expanded ensemble forecasting, and potential commercial applications in insurance and climate risk modeling.
Meanwhile, investors appeared to balance Nvidia’s expanding software ecosystem and infrastructure partnerships against heightened attention on hyper-scalers developing competing in-house AI chips and software tools.
Overall, these developments did not alter Nvidia’s stated strategy or outlook, and trading largely reflected expectations already shaped by prior AI demand and platform leadership narratives.
Is NVDA Stock Fairly Valued Right Now?
Under the valuation model shown, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth: 46.8%
- Operating Margins: 62.1%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 21.6x
Under valuation assumptions through January 2028, the model conditions Nvidia’s outcomes on sustained execution against aggressive growth assumptions.
The model assumes roughly 46.8% revenue CAGR, operating margins near 62%, and an exit valuation multiple of about 21.6x.
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a $293 target price, implying 57.3% total upside and 25.2% annualized returns.
Achieving this outcome depends on continued hyperscaler demand, software ecosystem expansion, data center scale, and sustained pricing power supporting elevated margins.
Nvidia stock’s valuation reflects execution risk around AI infrastructure demand durability rather than embedded optimism, leaving returns highly sensitive to operational performance.
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