Key Stats
- Current Price: $509 (May 15, 2026)
- Q1 2026 Revenue: $235M, +10% YoY, +6% QoQ
- Q1 2026 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.33, +7% YoY
- Q1 2026 GAAP EPS: $2.04
- Q2 2026 Revenue Guidance: $245M to $255M (midpoint $250M)
- Q2 2026 Non-GAAP EPS Guidance: $2.34 to $2.48
- TIKR Model Price Target: $647
- Implied Upside: ~27% over 4 and a half years (~5% annualized)
Nova Stock Delivers Record Q1 as Memory Demand and Advanced Packaging Drive Upside
Nova stock (NVMI) reported Q1 2026 revenue of $235M, exceeding the high end of management’s guidance range, with non-GAAP EPS of $2.33 also clearing the top of guidance.
Memory was the standout driver, posting record revenue and accounting for 34% of total product revenue in the quarter.
According to President and CEO Gaby Waisman on the Q1 2026 earnings call, advanced DRAM applications accounted for approximately two-thirds of Nova’s memory business, with record sales of the Metrion platform driven by repeat purchases from a leading memory customer.
Advanced packaging also reached record quarterly revenue, with Nova’s portfolio positioned across 2.5D and 3D packaging production, according to Waisman.
Services revenue hit a record as well, marking the 13th consecutive quarter of sequential growth, according to CFO Guy Kizner on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Logic delivered record revenue from Nova’s integrated metrology product line, driven by gate-all-around and new customer penetrations, according to Waisman.
Nova received the Intel EPIC Supplier Award in Q1 2026, described by Waisman as the highest honor in Intel’s global supply chain, covering a select list from among thousands of Intel suppliers.
Non-GAAP operating margins reached 34% in Q1, above the upper end of Nova’s target model range of 28% to 33%, according to Kizner.
The effective GAAP tax rate came in at approximately 17% in Q1, modestly above guidance, with Kizner noting the geographic and entity mix of income as the primary driver and expecting normalization through the year.
For Q2 2026, management guided revenue of $245M to $255M and non-GAAP EPS of $2.34 to $2.48.
Waisman stated that customer schedule pull-ins are driving the first half higher than originally forecasted, with the second half expected to run higher still.
Nova is constructing a new production facility in Asia, expected to become operational toward the end of 2026, to increase capacity and improve cost structure, according to Waisman.
Waisman cited mid-teens WFE growth as Nova’s current market read for 2026, higher than the company’s February outlook, with Nova expecting to outperform that growth rate.
Nova targets $1 billion in annual revenue by 2027, and Waisman confirmed the company remains on track for that goal.
The company is also tracking toward a cumulative $500M in gate-all-around revenue, with Waisman confirming progress on that multi-year target.
Nova Stock Financials: Margin Resilience at the High End of the Target Range
Nova’s income statement shows a consistent profitability story: gross margins have held within a tight band while operating income has expanded alongside rising revenue.
Revenue climbed from $157M in Q2 2024 to $235M in Q1 2026, with the strongest YoY growth rates appearing in the middle of that arc before moderating to 10% in the most recent quarter.
Gross margin moved from 59% in Q2 2024 to a trough of 56% in Q3 2024, then recovered to 58% range through 2025, and came in at 58% in Q1 2026 on a GAAP basis.
Operating margin followed a similar path: 30% in Q2 2024, compressing to 27% to 28% in late 2024 and mid-2025, then rebounding to 30% in Q1 2026, matching the upper end of the multi-quarter range.
Operating income reached $71M in Q1 2026, the highest level in the eight-quarter history shown in the income statement screenshot, up from $62M in Q4 2025 and $64M in Q1 2025.
Kizner also confirmed on the Q1 2026 earnings call that non-GAAP gross margins for 2026 are expected to remain within the same range as Q1, characterizing the current level as sustainable through the year.
Meanwhile, NVMI’s total operating expenses on a GAAP basis came in at $65M in Q1 2026, down from almost $67M in Q4 2025, even as revenue grew sequentially, reflecting the operating leverage in the model.
Nova Stock Valuation: Model Prices 27% Upside, but Patience Required
The TIKR model prices Nova stock at $647, representing approximately 27% upside from the current price of $509 over 4 and a half years, implying an annualized return of around 5%.
The mid-case model assumes a revenue CAGR of near 11% from 2025 through 2035E and a net income margin of 33%.
Given the Q1 beat on both revenue and EPS, and Q2 guidance that sits above Q1 actuals at the midpoint, the near-term execution risk in the model looks manageable.
The investment case is roughly intact after this report, but the 8% stock decline on earnings day reflects the market pricing in expectations beyond what the current guidance run-rate supports.
The question Nova stock investors are now weighing: does the record Q1, the $1B revenue target for 2027, and the sustained high-end margin performance justify holding through a period where annual returns implied by the model are in the low-to-mid single digits?
Bull Case
- Q1 non-GAAP operating margins hit 34%, above the 28% to 33% target range, and Kizner confirmed this level is sustainable through 2026, strengthening the profitability floor.
- Memory revenue hit a record in Q1, with advanced DRAM accounting for roughly two-thirds of that segment, and Waisman flagged robust HBM-related bookings for the Nova WMC and Semdex platforms.
- Advanced packaging edged toward the mid-20s as a share of product revenue in Q1, with hybrid bonding pull-ins accelerating, particularly from memory customers, per Waisman.
- The $1B revenue target for 2027 remains on track, supported by improved customer visibility, 2027 order activity already underway, and a new Asia production facility coming online by year-end 2026.
Bear Case
- The TIKR model’s mid-case implies only 5.3% annualized returns through 2030, and the low-case scenario puts the stock at $564 by year-end 2030, a return of just 1.2% annually.
- Nova’s WFE outperformance thesis depends on process control intensity remaining elevated across gate-all-around, HBM, and advanced packaging, all of which are timing-sensitive ramps not yet at full scale.
- Revenue YoY growth decelerated from 50% in Q1 2025 to 10% in Q1 2026, and while sequential momentum resumed this quarter, the multi-quarter deceleration in YoY rates still applies pressure to premium multiple justification.
- Waisman acknowledged cost pressure at the supplier level tied to higher chip prices, which Nova is managing through active cost management and long-term supplier relationships but has not yet fully resolved.
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