Joby Aviation Is Down 58% From Its High. Is the Air Taxi Story Still Worth Believing?

Key Stats for Joby Aviation Stock

• 52-Week Range: $6.61 to $19.98
• Street Mean Target: ~$11
• Market Cap: ~$6.8 billion
• LTM Gross Margin: 34.3%
• Net Cash: ~$1.5 billion
• Fwd 2-Yr Rev CAGR: ~103%

Value your favorite stocks like Joby Aviation with 5 years of analysts’ forecasts using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free) >>>

Joby Has Fallen 58% This Year. Here Is What the Selloff Is Really About.

Joby Aviation (JOBY) is building something that does not yet exist at commercial scale: a quiet, all-electric air taxi that takes off and lands vertically, flies at up to 200 miles per hour, and costs roughly the same per mile as a traditional rideshare once the network reaches full operation.

The vision is real, the technology has been flying, and the company has backing from Toyota, Delta Air Lines, and the U.S. Department of Defense. Getting from that vision to a commercially certified, revenue-generating service has taken longer than the market expected, and the stock has paid for it.

Shares have fallen nearly 58% from their 52-week high of $19.98 reached in January, sitting close to an all-time low as investors weigh the gap between what Joby is building and when it will actually generate meaningful returns.

The drawdown chart below captures how that reset has played out over the course of 2026, with one brief recovery in June before the stock resumed its decline.

The selloff is not really about the technology. Joby is now in the fifth and final stage of FAA Type Certification, which is the regulatory approval required before commercial passenger service can begin in the United States.

Five aircraft are currently flying, 12 more are in production, and the company is targeting its first eIPP demonstration flights, part of the White House-backed Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing Integration Pilot Program, in Texas this month. Founder and CEO JoeBen Bevirt described Q2 as “the strongest quarterly progress yet” on certification.

The selloff, instead, reflects the patience required to hold a pre-commercial company through a multi-year regulatory process where any delay gets punished quickly, and any milestone gets celebrated briefly.

See historical and forward estimates for Joby Aviation stock (It’s free!) >>>

The Revenue Is Real, But It Is Still Small

Joby generates most of its current revenue through Blade, the premium air transportation service it acquired and operates while the eVTOL business completes certification. Blade contributed $36.2 million in Q2 2026, with seats sold up more than 50% year over year.

The first half of 2026 Blade revenue was up 32% from the prior year, and management noted that aircraft availability rather than passenger demand has become the primary constraint on further growth, a signal that the underlying commercial demand for fast, premium air travel is genuine.

On the strength of that performance, Joby raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to between $115 million and $125 million, up from the prior range of $105 million to $115 million.

The cash chart tells an important part of the story. The company entered 2022 with roughly $956 million in cash after going public, and that balance compressed significantly through 2022 and 2023 as it funded certification, manufacturing buildout, and the Blade acquisition.

By year-end 2025, cash and equivalents had recovered to $241 million, though total liquidity, including short-term investments and marketable securities, stood at approximately $1.5 billion as of the most recent quarter. That runway matters enormously for a company that is still burning cash on the path to its first certified commercial service.

See how Joby Aviation performs against its peers in TIKR (It’s free!) >>>

What Does Wall Street Think About Joby Right Now?

Analyst opinion on JOBY is notably divided, which makes sense given how different the bull and bear cases are from each other.

Of nine covering analysts, two have buy ratings, one has an outperform, five are at hold, one has an underperform, and two have sell ratings. The Street mean target sits at around $11, implying roughly 56% upside from current levels.

The high target is $18, and the low is $6, a spread that reflects genuine disagreement about whether Joby will clear certification on schedule and whether the economics of commercial eVTOL service will play out as management projects.

The target-to-price ratio of 156% is among the widest on the Street for a company of this size, which is a way of saying consensus doesn’t mean much here. Each analyst is essentially underwriting a different version of the certification timeline, the cost curve, and the competitive landscape.

Should You Buy Joby Aviation Stock?

The bull case rests on certification and timing. If Joby receives FAA Type Certification in 2026 or early 2027 and begins commercial passenger service as planned, the stock at $6.59 is buying one of the most advanced eVTOL programs in the world at a fraction of its January price, with $1.5 billion in liquidity, a Toyota manufacturing partnership, and a proven consumer demand signal from Blade already in hand.

The forward revenue CAGR estimate of around 103% reflects what the model looks like once eVTOL service begins layering on top of Blade’s existing base.

The bear case is delay and dilution. Joby has burned through substantial cash over several years of certification work, and each quarter of operating losses narrows the runway and increases the probability of additional equity issuances that dilute existing holders.

The competitive landscape includes Archer Aviation, Lilium’s successor operations, and several well-funded international programs, none of which are standing still. With a market cap of $6.8 billion and less than $125 million in annual revenue, the valuation still requires a great deal to go right on schedule.

Joby is not a stock for investors who need certainty. The technology works, the regulatory finish line is visible, and the commercial demand exists. Getting there still requires execution on a timeline that has already slipped before, and the stock reflects how little patience the market has left for that risk.

Investors who understand what they are buying and can tolerate the volatility will find the current price more interesting than it has been in some time.

See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Joby Aviation stock (It’s free!) >>>

Looking for New Opportunities?

• See which stocks billionaire investors are buying to follow the smart money.
• Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
• The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.

Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!