Key Stats for Intel Stock
- 52-Week Range: $18.97 – $142.35
- Current Price: $86.30
- Street Target Price: ~$115
- NTM P/E: 52x
- YTD Return: +119%
- Market Cap: ~$435B
- Fwd 2-Yr Revenue CAGR: ~16%
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Intel Just Delivered Its Fastest Revenue Growth Since 2011
For most of the past four years, Intel (INTC) has been a story of slow-motion decline.
Revenue fell steadily from $74.7 billion in 2021 to just $52.9 billion in 2025 as the company lost ground to AMD in PC processors, missed the initial AI wave almost entirely, and burned through capital trying to rebuild its manufacturing capabilities from scratch. The stock reflected all of it, spending much of 2024 near multi-decade lows.
Then something changed: Q2 2026 revenue came in at $16.1 billion, up 25% year-over-year and more than $1.7 billion above Wall Street expectations. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.42 more than doubled the guided $0.20. CEO Lip-Bu Tan called it the company’s strongest revenue growth in more than fifteen years.
The Data Center and AI segment, which sells server processors running cloud and AI workloads, grew 59% year over year to $6.3 billion. Client Computing, the PC chip business, grew 13% to $8.9 billion. Even Intel Foundry, the source of most of the company’s recent losses, grew revenue by 31% to $5.8 billion.
Consensus estimates now show Intel recovering to around $63 billion in 2026, climbing toward $100 billion by 2029.
Whether those numbers materialize depends on two things: whether the data center momentum holds, and whether Intel’s 18A manufacturing node can attract enough external customers to justify the enormous investment funding it.
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The $20 Billion Manufacturing Bet Behind the Numbers
Intel is not just a chip designer, it is trying to become a contract manufacturer, competing directly with TSMC, the dominant global foundry that makes chips for Apple, Nvidia, and dozens of others.
To do that, the company has committed to more than $20 billion in capital expenditures in 2026 alone, with management signaling that 2027 will be even higher.
That investment shows up directly in free cash flow. Intel generated positive FCF of $9.1 billion as recently as 2021. The capex ramp has since pushed it into deep negative territory, bottoming near $15.7 billion in 2024 before improving to $4.9 billion in 2025.
The company is essentially pre-funding a manufacturing business that does not yet generate meaningful external revenue, foundry external sales were just $293 million in Q2.
The manufacturing progress is real, though. Intel’s 18A node has reached yields of approximately 85%, up from 65% the prior quarter, and output exceeded internal targets by around 25% in Q2. A major cloud provider has signed on as the first external volume customer.
Panther Lake, the first consumer chip built on 18A, is now in high-volume manufacturing. As Tan said on the earnings call, “customers continue to signal a strong and sustainable spending environment.” The bet is large, but it is not without early signs of return.
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What the Valuation Model Says About Intel Stock
The TIKR valuation model assumes revenue growing at around 19% annually through 2030, net income margins recovering to roughly 18%, and EPS compounding at around 31% per year off a deeply depressed base.
The mid-case target is around $188, representing a potential total return of roughly 118% from the current price, or about 19% annualized over 4.4 years.
Worth noting: those returns are driven almost entirely by earnings recovery, not multiple expansion.
The P/E is actually projected to compress around 5% per year as the stock grows into its valuation, which is a more grounded framework than turnaround models that layer in both earnings growth and re-rating simultaneously.
The Street is more conservative, with a consensus target around $115. Either way, the stock is pricing in sustained execution, which means the margin for error is narrower than the YTD return might suggest.
Should You Buy Intel Stock?
Intel’s Q2 results were genuinely impressive, and progress on 18A is more concrete than most observers expected six months ago. For investors who believe the company can sustain this trajectory, the TIKR mid-case suggests meaningful upside from current levels.
The honest counterpoint is that the stock has already moved a long way. Down roughly 30% from its 2026 high, Intel is cheaper than it was, but still trades around 52 times forward earnings on numbers that require continued strong execution in data center, a foundry business that has yet to generate meaningful external profit, and a PC market management flagged as flat heading into Q3. Free cash flow will remain negative as capex climbs.
This is a business that is clearly turning, asking investors to pay a premium for a real but far-from-complete turnaround.
For those willing to hold through the capex cycle and believe Intel can reclaim a serious position in advanced chip manufacturing, the next few years could be rewarding. If you need near-term earnings clarity and positive cash flow, the picture is cloudier than the headline numbers suggest.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
