Key Takeaways for Copart Stock as of July 2026
- Five buy ratings, two outperforms, five holds and one underperform anchor Copart stock’s consensus, with the Street’s $41 mean target sitting 45% above the current $28 share price.
- By 2030, TIKR’s mid case model prices Copart stock at $43, a 52% total return and 10.9% annualized rate over the next four years.
- With EBITDA troughing at $470 million this quarter before consensus lifts it to $520 million and margins to 43% by July 2027, Copart stock looks undervalued against its own rebound.
- Adair returned as CEO July 31, pledging $4.2 billion in cash to M&A.
Copart Stock: Jay Adair Returns as CEO to Fast Track M&A
Copart (CPRT) confirmed Jay Adair’s return as chief executive on July 31, 2026, ending Jeff Liaw’s run atop the auction platform. The move followed a fiscal third quarter in which Copart beat estimates on both lines, posting revenue of $1.24 billion and EPS of $0.43 against a $0.41 consensus.
Adair used a July 6 special call, the company’s first between-earnings call in 32 years as a public company, to lay out where the cash goes next. Sitting on $4.2 billion in cash and no debt, he committed capital directly: “We will be doing M&A obviously, and we’ll be building as well… we’re sitting on a ton of cash, and we have the ability to do both. So we will.” That commitment targets three pillars: international insurance expansion, domestic whole car growth and technology services for customers.
The financial backdrop supports the timing. Total loss frequency reached 24% in the most recent quarter, up nearly five points over four years, while U.S. insurance ASPs hit a record high, up 4% year over year. Those two dynamics drove Q3 EBITDA to $572.6 million, up 3.7%, even as global insurance units fell 3% on consumer pullback from higher premiums.
Adair also confirmed the promotion of Jane Pocock to president effective August 1, 2026, elevating the UK managing director who built out Copart’s European capacity. The leadership stack now pairs Adair’s M&A mandate with an operator who scaled international units 6% and international revenue 14% last quarter, the growth pillar Adair says he will “speed up.”
Wall Street Splits on Copart Stock but Keeps a Bullish Mean Target
Analyst sentiment on Copart stock leans positive but not unanimous, with five buy ratings, two outperforms, five holds and one underperform among the analysts tracked. The mean target of $40.90 sits 45% above the current $28.29 share price, a gap that has widened even as the mean target itself has fallen from $58.63 in July 2025. That combination, a lower target paired with a wider implied gap, reflects a stock price that dropped faster than analyst expectations came down. The high estimate of $55 and low of $32 bracket a Street that still expects Copart stock to recover well above where it trades today.
Wall Street Expects Copart Stock’s EBITDA to Rebound 12% by Mid-2027
Copart’s EBITDA fell 8% year over year to $440 million in the January 2026 quarter, the low point of the current cycle, as EBITDA margin compressed to 40%.
Consensus sees that pressure persist into the July 2026 quarter, with EBITDA estimated at $470 million, unchanged from a year earlier, before margin recovers to 41%.
From there the estimates turn, with EBITDA projected to climb 4% in October 2026, 10% in January 2027 and 12% by July 2027 to $520 million, alongside a margin recovery to 43%.
Bulls point to that reacceleration. Bears note EBITDA growth still trails the 14% pace Copart posted two years earlier in July 2025.
TIKR Prices Copart Stock at $43, a 52% Return by 2030
TIKR’s mid case model values Copart stock at $43 by July 2030, a 52% total return from the current $28 price and a 10.9% annualized return over four years.
That annualized rate outpaces where a low single digit grower would trade, putting Copart stock’s return profile closer to a mid cycle compounder than a name priced for further declines.
The target is reachable because the EBITDA trough is already behind the company: total loss frequency at 23.6% and record ASPs are lifting margins back toward 43%, and Adair’s $4.2 billion cash pile adds M&A upside the current estimates do not yet include.
See how TIKR built its $43 target and 52% return case for Copart stock on TIKR for free →
Should You Invest in Copart, Inc.?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
